I think the main issue of making a Z mount equivalent to the D500 is that the fast sensor readout enabling silent photography at high fps and with minimal rolling shutter distortion necessitates an expensive sensor and Nikon might not end up making a profit from such development just for the high end DX crowd. [...] What people who are asking for a Z D500 equivalent really want is a substantially higher pixel density sensor with similar read times as the Z8/Z9 and it could end up costing as much as the Z8 easily, and still it would be a niche camera since wide angles would be negatively affected and fast standard zooms would need to be redesigned for DX Z for such camera models to get enough user base beyond the bird photography niche.
Nikon will at some point have to develop a new DX sensor - "a" meaning there will only be one, because they will need to use it across the DX range and for a long time, in order to recoup the development costs. If that was a 45MP DX sensor it could simply go straight into the Z8II.
However ... the D500 suffered because although it did offer higher pixel-density versus the 20MP D5 and D6, it did not versus the 45MP D850 when that appeared only a year later, and although a (say) 45MP DX sensor has higher pixel-density than the
current Z8 and Z9, it also would suffer if later iterations of the Z8/9 had 80MP or 100MP (DX crops of 35 and 44MP). So a lot will depend on how Nikon expects the Z8/9 to evolve over the next couple of iterations.
The need to use the sensor across the DX range means cost and suitability for video are likely to be key factors, especially if the predictions of a DX - ie, less expensive - counterpart to the ZR in 2026 are correct. The RED Komodo/Komodo-X use a 20MP Super 35 (27 x 14mm) sensor to do 6K at 40/80 fps, and cost $3000 and $7000, so a 24MP partially stacked DX sensor giving 6K at 60 fps would match well.