New D780 formally announced.

[Bill De Jager]

What bothers me above all is that Hogan thinks the manufacturers need growing sales volumes.

I don't recall seeing anything like this in his commentary.  He has repeatedly stated that ILC volume is going down and will go down farther.  His suggestions are intended to mitigate the severity of this drop in sales, not reverse it.

[Erik Lund]

I don't recall seeing anything like this in his commentary.  He has repeatedly stated that ILC volume is going down and will go down farther.  His suggestions are intended to mitigate the severity of this drop in sales, not reverse it.

Here is direct quote from Thom:

.... Put a different way, what the camera makers need most right now is More Sales Volume. What they're doing in product development won't generate that.
Jan 7, 2020 at 3:43 PM

[Netr]

Two paragraphs above Erik's quote, Hogan wrote:
"Is that really the optimal product approach for a declining market with a loyal customer base, though? I don't think so. Indeed, I'm predicting another big (-20%+) down year for cameras in 2020, despite the fact we're likely to see quite a few new (and some overdue) models announced. The reason? Those new cameras just aren't appealing enough to the remaining customers to attract a big update cycle. The recently announced new DSLRs are witness of that."

Hogan is saying, as I read it, that total sales will go down even further than projected because the new cameras from both Canon and Nikon are not attractive enough to encourage upgrades from existing customers. This is is because they are too focussed on making more profit for each individual camera sold, instead of focussing on maximising profits from the sale of the camera model by adding, or not taking away, features that people want.

[Erik Lund]

Sorry, but I really don't want to ague about what I think Thom is thinking Nikon is thinking 

[Ilkka Nissilä]

Hogan is saying, as I read it, that total sales will go down even further than projected because the new cameras from both Canon and Nikon are not attractive enough to encourage upgrades from existing customers. This is is because they are too focussed on making more profit for each individual camera sold, instead of focussing on maximising profits from the sale of the camera model by adding, or not taking away, features that people want.

The top-of-the-line models such as D5 and D850 rarely have features removed; OK, the D5 lost the AE-L/AF-L button but got a joystick in that area of the body and many people seem to like that (interestingly the D780 got the second thumb button!). The D850 lost the pop-up flash, for which I say "Hurraa!" to Nikon. Now, the bodies which are not top-of-the-line exist to make cameras accessible to less wealthy individuals as well as to enthusiasts and beginners. Usually smaller size and lower weight are benefits of the lower-priced models, but also some features have been removed or some parts are cheaper. Which features are removed to distinguish the models is a source of debate and Nikon seem to not be sure about it either, as we can see from the feature set being changed in the mid and lower-end models frequently.

I can see that this is annoying especially if you have a favorite feature which was removed. I find it difficult to find good laptops suitable for my use, as I want a screen that calibrates well, and a keyboard that gives a good tactile response so that I can type reliably and quickly without looking at the keys at any point. With laptops the goal seems to have been to make them thinner and this means the keyboard usually suffers.  The only thing that I can do really is to buy the one that is best fit to my needs.

How would you solve the feature set problem in the mid- and entry-level bodies, without reducing the appeal of the top-of-the-line models?

[Bill De Jager]

Here is direct quote from Thom:

.... Put a different way, what the camera makers need most right now is More Sales Volume. What they're doing in product development won't generate that.
Jan 7, 2020 at 3:43 PM

Then he's contradicting himself, as he's stated various times that the camera market is going down and the manufacturers need to find a way to moderate that decline by better addressing user problems.

[Tristin]

How would you solve the feature set problem in the mid- and entry-level bodies, without reducing the appeal of the top-of-the-line models?

With the features that only pros really need, such as file annotation, GPS along with pro level service packages, most importantly.  Sony is unlikely to produce $7K "pro" bodies, and will instead continue to focus on their $2-3K bodies being as powerful as they can make them.  Unless they take a similar approach, this will force Nikon/Canon to strip the mid level models of features (such as vertical grips...) in an attempt to funnel users to the pro bodies.  I don't see that panning out how they'd like it to as they would be demolished by Sony in mid level sales.  It wouldn't surprise me if we saw the DX/1D tier get scrapped in their mirrorless lines in favor of the Sony approach, the fact that Nikon didn't reserve the single digit model numbers for a "pro" Z is likely a foreshadowing of this. 

[MILLIREHM]

Nikon is wasting numbers by bringing a D780 instead of a D760, so there is only one more Number left (if we wont see a D781 some times in the new future), maybe Nikon thinks a D7xx series will become obsolete anyway.

BTW I like the removal of the AF/AE-L button because it enables me to focus on the AF-ON button without the risk of accidentially activating the wrong one. If I need it i can use  FN-button.

[Akira]

If D780 would have been released half a year earlier, I might have come back to Nikon DSLR.   

[Ilkka Nissilä]

Nikon is wasting numbers by bringing a D780 instead of a D760, so there is only one more Number left (if we wont see a D781 some times in the new future), maybe Nikon thinks a D7xx series will become obsolete anyway.

They can add Mk II Mk III, or X or S to the name or come up with a new numbering scheme. There are infinite possibilities. A D760 would likely have been used for a "correct the bugs" upgrade but because they added significant new features, they made a bigger change to the name.

BTW I like the removal of the AF/AE-L button because it enables me to focus on the AF-ON button without the risk of accidentially activating the wrong one. If I need it i can use  FN-button.

But you can program the two buttons to do the same thing -  or different things - whichever you like. I don't like the front Fn buttons for this because they're a lot harder to press and hold than the thumb buttons. I wish my cameras had two thumb buttons that I could assign to e.g. different exposure or AF area settings.

For example, I might have AF-ON activate AF with 9-point dynamic area and AE-L/AF-L to activate AF with 25-point dynamic area, or 3D tracking, for example.

Another application which I currently use for the front side buttons is to switch between action-freezing exposure settings and differnet settings for a slow-moving subject (e.g., an animal that is not actively moving). I could have autofocus + 1/1600s set to AF-ON and autofocus + 1/200s to AE-L/AF-L.  This way I could always easily react to a subject springing off into a run or flying off while not using any higher ISO than necessary for the time when the subject is not moving actively.

Two thumb buttons would be preferable to me for this purpose as I never really liked pressing the Fn buttons on the front side, as I lose the firm hold of the grip when I depress a front side button (to press and hold the button, the camera is no longer held from the grip but from the Fn button and this is less stable).

[CS]

The D780 holds no interest for me, but I wonde how many of those discounting Hogan’s view of it are going to back their words by buying one.

[Jack Dahlgren]

The D780 holds no interest for me, but I wonde how many of those discounting Hogan’s view of it are going to back their words by buying one.

One can have a high opinion of a product, yet not purchase it. In fact, it is wise to not purchase everything. There are innumerable products I’m interested in which I will ever buy.

[tommiejeep]

Jack, agreed.  I guess I could sell all of my property and just buy gear  .   Carl, I had a lot more time for Thom, and received a lot of help from him via emails, before a very large percentage of his Nikon discussion was basically, 'if Nikon listened to me....' .  Sometime he made good points but other times he was just flat off the wall.   I did buy his Z6 eGuide .

[CS]

I was hardly suggesting that anyone go on a gear buying binge. My remarks in this are limited to those who are actually looking to upgrade to a D780 while D750 prices are $800 less expensive.

[Ilkka Nissilä]

I am planning on buying one Nikon camera sometime in 2020-1 but which it is dependent on what they bring to the market. If the D780 is the only OSPDAF-equipped DSLR they launch, and if my financial situation allows, then it may be the camera I buy. However, I'm more a D8x0 user type and tend to keep up with developments in that line.