Lubricants leaking onto the aperture blades will cause the noted behaviour. Some lens designs are particularly prone to getting this problem, with the 55/2.8 Micro as the most infamous example. Also the AF 20/2.8 saw a good deal of these issues.
Thanks for commenting, I'll certainly report how things go after cleaning the aperture blades
Since the stop down activation is the assumed to be the same mechanism used by both the DOF preview button and the camera shutter firing cycle, you should be able to reproduce and observe the problem by watching the lens front and firing the shutter...or pushing the DOF preview button... numerous times. I had a AiS 135/2 that had an intermittent aperture closing issue, but the technician who fixed it didn't say what he did to fix it. Is it possible that the coil spring gets tired and weakened?
Thanks for the suggestion, setting the lens to F16 should make it easy to observe
But a completely different scene so perhaps not a good way to evaluate the problem?
Also a failing flash could vary its exposure as well, though the DOF button trick seems to lean towards a camera/lens error.
Why not try to recreate this under a more controlled setting? Camera on a tripod, constant light source, take lots of pictures and watch for varying exposure.
Charlie,
I did try the sunny 16 rule, (1/125 f/16 ISO 100)and the behavior became much more easier to obtain, like 1 every 2 shots, the example studio shots were done at f5.6 and the problem happened twice in a series of perhaps 20 shots.
In my experience when a flash fails, one gets an underexposed image, not over exposed.