Author Topic: Next corpse Nikon?  (Read 1982 times)

Peter Forsell

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Next corpse Nikon?
« on: June 25, 2020, 23:56:17 »
The ILC market has been in a free fall for quite some time and now COVID is slowing down all manufacturing and commerce. Olympus threw in the towel. Who will be next? Nikon is very vulnerable and very late to the mirrorless market and struggling to promote the new cameras. Extremely bad luck on timing with the transition  from F to Z mount. Will Nikon Imaging see 2021?

John Geerts

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Re: Next corpse Nikon?
« Reply #1 on: June 26, 2020, 06:57:04 »
The ILC market has been in a free fall for quite some time and now COVID is slowing down all manufacturing and commerce. Olympus threw in the towel. Who will be next? Nikon is very vulnerable
  Not true.

 
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and very late to the mirrorless market and struggling to promote the new cameras. Extremely bad luck on timing with the transition  from F to Z mount. Will Nikon Imaging see 2021?
Irrelevant.  Your post looks like what the Nikon-bashers always post

Read the financial statement:  https://www.nikon.com/about/ir/finance/financial_statements/financialposition/index.htm

Netr

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Re: Next corpse Nikon?
« Reply #2 on: June 26, 2020, 07:36:43 »
Nikon as a company remains profitable.  A quote from Thom Hogan:

"Much to the chagrin of the “Nikon will disappear” crowd on the Internet, the company overall booked US$5.4b in sales, and made US$62m in profit. No doubt there’s bad news in Nikon’s results—much like that of most big companies at the moment—but the financials they just reported show a lot of effort and control over their continued retraction that leaves them with reasonably healthy fundamentals. They have US$3.7b cash in hand and an equity ratio of 54%, with lines of credit still open should they need it."

From the May 28th article, http://www.bythom.com/articles-index-archive/2020-article-index/may-2020.html


Peter Forsell

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Re: Next corpse Nikon?
« Reply #3 on: June 26, 2020, 08:43:45 »
John and Netr, Nikon Imaging made a 17.1 billion yen loss in the latest fiscal year. What I am asking whether the Nikon Corp feels it is reasonable to throw good money after bad to keep the Imaging alive, or would shareholders be more happy if they shut it down? Just like Olympus did. Olympus Medical and Olympus Corp made record profit, but Olympus Imaging is no more after a 10 billion yen loss.

Nikon Imaging had almost 40 % market share out of 20 million unit ILC sales in 2012, now the share is under 20 % of 4 million units. Next year the worldwide ILC sales will still be shrinking still.

How is it bashing to ask a clear question? That accusation is borderline ad hominem.

Canon and Sony are safe, Canon because of it’s mass and volume, Sony because it is market leader in mirrorless. Nikon Imaging is a distant third and bleeding. Leica probably is safe because they sell bling with huge margins and there’s always buyers for bling.

Hugh_3170

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Re: Next corpse Nikon?
« Reply #4 on: June 26, 2020, 09:25:18 »
Whilst it is not an absolute guarantee of survivability, Nikon is a very important member of the very powerful Mitsubishi keiretsu.
Hugh Gunn

golunvolo

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Re: Next corpse Nikon?
« Reply #5 on: June 26, 2020, 10:34:21 »
62$m profit or 17.1 billion yen loss?  I'm reading but it is not easy to follow.

Jan Anne

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Re: Next corpse Nikon?
« Reply #6 on: June 26, 2020, 10:56:50 »
Hi Paco, the Nikon mothership is in a healthy state but the Imaging department made a loss.

The Nikon Sport Optics division were in the same situation last year which forced them to withdraw from making rifle scopes and such.
Cheers,
Jan Anne

golunvolo

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Re: Next corpse Nikon?
« Reply #7 on: June 26, 2020, 11:29:29 »
Thanks Jan  Anne

Jan Anne

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Re: Next corpse Nikon?
« Reply #8 on: June 26, 2020, 11:57:15 »
I would love to support Nikon financially IF they made the right lenses and gear to invest into.

My last purchases were made in 2018 when I bought the Z6, D500, 200-500VR and a stabilized laser range finder for the other shooting hobby (@bushwackert on Insta for some cool airgun pics).

For the moment I have no desire for most of the Zee lenses and am patiently waiting for a Z 35mm f/1.2 to restore my once so beloved 35, 50 and 85mm trio of f/1.2 lenses. Another lens on the list is a small ultra wide angle in the 12 to 15mm range, for the rest I’ll stick with the Nikkor 50/1.2 Ai-S, Canon FD 85/1.2, Voigtander EF 125/2.5 APO and the briljant 200-500VR.

In the meantime I’ll keep using these with the FE to Z adapter:




Cheers,
Jan Anne

Chris Dees

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Re: Next corpse Nikon?
« Reply #9 on: June 26, 2020, 18:09:00 »
The 1.8 lenses are perhaps less appealing, but they are all full hits so to speak.
I'm afraid the upcoming 1.2 lenses are waaaay above my budget (€2500 and up?).
Chris Dees

Ilkka Nissilä

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Re: Next corpse Nikon?
« Reply #10 on: June 27, 2020, 00:26:22 »
If you look at Nikon's financial history, you'll find many years where Precision made losses and Imaging paid the bills. It's not very likely that they would end either division.

Many people seem to believe that companies operate in some wild west idea of a pure capitalism where all that matters is money. It is not quite like that. Many people do work because it makes them feel a sense of accomplishment and pride. Not because there is a lot of money in it.

People always predict doom for Nikon, it gets very tiring.

What is also tiring is selective use of data. In 2012 Nikon sold a lot because in 2011 their factories in Sendai and Thailand were destroyed, so they could not sell what they could not make. In 2012 they had a lot of pent-up demand and their factories were up and running again and so they sold a lot, also those cameras they could not supply to customers who would have normally bought in 2011. While also other manufacturers had damage, I believe Nikon were among the worst affected. 40% is certainly not Nikon's typical market share historically.

Olympus, by contrast, made many years of losses from cameras. Nikon imaging has been profitable on most years in the past decade. This year, probably no camera maker is going to do well due to COVID-19 cancelling travel, events, and incomes.

Hugh_3170

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Re: Next corpse Nikon?
« Reply #11 on: June 27, 2020, 03:18:45 »
We should not lose sight of the fact that Olympus has very profitable lines of business in endoscopes, microscopes, and a whole range of other medical and industrial equipment.  And they were been beset with scandals involving financial mismanagement only a few years ago.

Likewise Konica-Minolta were still profitable in their non-imaging/non-camera lines of business when they off loaded their camera business.  So I think that Nikon as an entity will be around for quite a while yet. 

The question for any manufacturer that is profitable in an overall sense is how long the profitable lines of business should be allowed to cross subsidise the less profitable business lines. 
Hugh Gunn

Ilkka Nissilä

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Re: Next corpse Nikon?
« Reply #12 on: June 27, 2020, 14:29:26 »
We should not lose sight of the fact that Olympus has very profitable lines of business in endoscopes, microscopes, and a whole range of other medical and industrial equipment.  And they were been beset with scandals involving financial mismanagement only a few years ago.

Note that Olympus's camera business will be continued under the new owner. Looking at Olympus' financial records, their imaging business made a 0.2% profit in one year out of the past ten years, and in nine out of ten years they made large losses. So there is a very long history of the Olympus Imaging business making large losses before they made this decision. A 3% market share may be too small. 20% is entirely a different matter.

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Likewise Konica-Minolta were still profitable in their non-imaging/non-camera lines of business when they off loaded their camera business.  So I think that Nikon as an entity will be around for quite a while yet. 

Minolta got into trouble because of their unpaid license fees for the AF technology they used.

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The question for any manufacturer that is profitable in an overall sense is how long the profitable lines of business should be allowed to cross subsidise the less profitable business lines.

Companies' different divisions typically have synergies. For example, the nano-coating came into camera lenses made by Nikon Imaging from stepper lenses made by Precision.  For many years Nikon Imaging created large profits. The Sony A9 sensor was made possible in part by development work carried out to make the Playstation, and they make many sensors for smartphones as well, thus their success in the camera business is partly inherited from (or supported by) their other fields of business. I don't think it's conceivable that Nikon could succeed with the rest of its businesses in the long term without the camera business. The camera business is making a loss now because they are spending a lot money to make a mirrorless system and it's not complete enough to become a success yet. The consumer trends (towards smartphone rather than dedicated camera) and now COVID-19 are affecting all camera manufacturers' activities. Now, it may be that since people are at home, the game console business is likely to be booming, but I wouldn't necessarily think that's all that there is in human activities in the future. Medical technology is also doing well, but that could be temporary. Soon there will likely be huge overcapacity of intensive care equipment that is no longer needed. To sustain activity in a rapidly-changing world, companies need to have a diverse portfolio of products.

pluton

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Re: Next corpse Nikon?
« Reply #13 on: June 27, 2020, 20:33:30 »
Note that Olympus's camera business will be continued under the new owner.
Maybe not.
Some expect that production will cease immediately.
Apparently, JIP (Japan Industrial Partners) is a venture capital company that buys troubled assets, and then sells off the parts for as much money as they can get. Sometimes they keep the famous brand name so they can apply it to generic consumer products.
Keith B., Santa Monica, CA, USA

Hugh_3170

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Re: Next corpse Nikon?
« Reply #14 on: June 28, 2020, 04:09:59 »
Yes, I suspect that that is the issue, along with COVID-19.  Given that Nikon is doing OK in its other divisions, it would seem to me (at least) to be far too early to pull the plug on such a major investment in the future of photography to abandon it anytime soon, especially since its early Z bodies are showing much promise and the Z lenses are arguably already best in class.

Companies' different divisions typically have synergies. For example, the nano-coating came into camera lenses made by Nikon Imaging from stepper lenses made by Precision.  For many years Nikon Imaging created large profits. The Sony A9 sensor was made possible in part by development work carried out to make the Playstation, and they make many sensors for smartphones as well, thus their success in the camera business is partly inherited from (or supported by) their other fields of business. I don't think it's conceivable that Nikon could succeed with the rest of its businesses in the long term without the camera business. The camera business is making a loss now because they are spending a lot money to make a mirrorless system and it's not complete enough to become a success yet. The consumer trends (towards smartphone rather than dedicated camera) and now COVID-19 are affecting all camera manufacturers' activities. Now, it may be that since people are at home, the game console business is likely to be booming, but I wouldn't necessarily think that's all that there is in human activities in the future. Medical technology is also doing well, but that could be temporary. Soon there will likely be huge overcapacity of intensive care equipment that is no longer needed. To sustain activity in a rapidly-changing world, companies need to have a diverse portfolio of products.
Hugh Gunn