Thinking about buying a full frame body

[ArthurDent]

I can get a used D800 for $840-1000. A used D800e would run  $950-1170. A used D810 would cost $1750-1830. But I don’t want any of those cameras, great as they are. I want a D850. I  only found a couple of used D850s for sale at $2750 and $3000, which is such a small discount from new, I feel I’d be better off buying new and getting the warranty.
Based on the depreciation of the earlier models, I’m inclined to wait and see if the replacement for the D850 causes the price of used D850s to drop precipitously like those of earlier full frames. I’d be quite satisfied with a used D850 for $15-1800, although I wouldn’t mind paying less. So, where do you think we are in the replacement cycle and when do you think Nikon is likely to field a replacement? Aiso, any thoughts on how long after a replacement is introduced before I could find one in my target price range? I ask because I haven’t been following the price trends of used equipment, other than for a few lenses I covet, and so don’t know the initial price drop after a replacement is introduced, or the trend thereafter, and I’m hoping some of you have paid attention to it.
Thanks for any information, or speculation, as the case may be.

[Jack Dahlgren]

I can get a used D800 for $840-1000. A used D800e would run  $950-1170. A used D810 would cost $1750-1830. But I don’t want any of those cameras, great as they are. I want a D850. I  only found a couple of used D850s for sale at $2750 and $3000, which is such a small discount from new, I feel I’d be better off buying new and getting the warranty.
Based on the depreciation of the earlier models, I’m inclined to wait and see if the replacement for the D850 causes the price of used D850s to drop precipitously like those of earlier full frames. I’d be quite satisfied with a used D850 for $15-1800, although I wouldn’t mind paying less. So, where do you think we are in the replacement cycle and when do you think Nikon is likely to field a replacement? Aiso, any thoughts on how long after a replacement is introduced before I could find one in my target price range? I ask because I haven’t been following the price trends of used equipment, other than for a few lenses I covet, and so don’t know the initial price drop after a replacement is introduced, or the trend thereafter, and I’m hoping some of you have paid attention to it.
Thanks for any information, or speculation, as the case may be.

D850 is new and unlikely to be replaced for several years. I don’t think it will hit 1500 for 5 years or so. The dF was released 5 years ago and used is still more than 1500.

[Akira]

Considering that Nikon is now concentrate on the development of the full-frame mirrorless system, it would not be likely that ANY of the current Nikon DSLRs would be replaced anytime soon.  I even suspect that D850 (or D5 in that sense) might be the last DSLR Nikon would ever develop.

If the scenario is real, the price of D850 isn't likely to drop, even when the mirrorless system is released, so long as there will still be demand for the good-and-old DSLR in its best incarnation, similar to the current situation of Df, as Jack pointed out.

[ArthurDent]

Based on your opinions, which seem reasonable to me, I may just go ahead and get a new D850. I like my D500 a lot, but, based on the images I see posted here, the image quality of the D850 is far superior to that of the D500. The D500 simply does not capture the same fine level of detail captured by the D850.

[Akira]

If D850 is THE camera that satisfies your requirement, any other option will be waste of money, no matter how affordable they would be.  Also, it would be better to consider the cost of the possible service.  The first owner of the brand new item would always be treated the best.

The reason for my choice of D750 was not only for its price.  It offers the best balance (at least to me) between the size, the pixel count, the AF reliability and the rendition of the image (somehow I like the round rendition of the sensor with the AA filter).

[ArthurDent]

If D850 is THE camera that satisfies your requirement, any other option will be waste of money, no matter how affordable they would be.  Also, it would be better to consider the cost of the possible service.  The first owner of the brand new item would always be treated the best.

The reason for my choice of D750 was not only for its price.  It offers the best balance (at least to me) between the size, the pixel count, the AF reliability and the rendition of the image (somehow I like the round rendition of the sensor with the AA filter).

The D750 must be highly regarded by many because its resale price is higher than the resale price of the D800.

[Akira]

The D750 must be highly regarded by many because its resale price is higher than the resale price of the D800.

That is inevitable.  D800/800E is six years old now and two generations older than D850, the current successor.  On the other hand, D750 has managed to be a current model for whatever reason, even though it was released nealy four years ago.  The resale value of a current model should naturally be high.

[Jack Dahlgren]

Considering that Nikon is now concentrate on the development of the full-frame mirrorless system, it would not be likely that ANY of the current Nikon DSLRs would be replaced anytime soon.  I even suspect that D850 (or D5 in that sense) might be the last DSLR Nikon would ever develop.

If the scenario is real, the price of D850 isn't likely to drop, even when the mirrorless system is released, so long as there will still be demand for the good-and-old DSLR in its best incarnation, similar to the current situation of Df, as Jack pointed out.

My guess is that there will still be DSLR AND mirrorless for a substantial amount of time. But I agree that D850 will stay around a long time. The variety/cadence of new DSLRs may decrease if mirrorless lineup is successful.

[JJChan]

Based on your opinions, which seem reasonable to me, I may just go ahead and get a new D850. I like my D500 a lot, but, based on the images I see posted here, the image quality of the D850 is far superior to that of the D500. The D500 simply does not capture the same fine level of detail captured by the D850.

I’ve just purchased a D850 having been satisfied with my D800E bought about 6months after its debut. I was less tempted by the D810 which did not have enough difference in image quality nor improvements in AF or usability.

From my perspective, the D800E had some issues with AF and that was my main reason for purchase of D850 as both Nikon 58mm and 35mm 1.4 struggled with adequate AF. I am very happy with the D850 - AF speed and accuracy has fulfilled expectations, but overall usability does show that Nikon has improved function in many subtle ways. The better image quality is a bonus as I was not unhappy with the D800E. The only negative for me is the loss of Capture NX2 which was fast and easy. NX-D was slower with D800E and slower still with D850. I am about to transfer the K3 screen over although the confirmation dot is much more accurate than the D800E and live view is now really really good.

I would go for the newer camera despite the higher buy in cost. The D850 is good enough that I suspect it will be sufficient for me for another 5 years and more.

JJ

[Frank Fremerey]

JJ: yes, five years is a good estimate to keep a tool like this.

[Per Inge Oestmoen]

My guess is that there will still be DSLR AND mirrorless for a substantial amount of time. But I agree that D850 will stay around a long time. The variety/cadence of new DSLRs may decrease if mirrorless lineup is successful.

Since there are more options and the DSLR system is very mature, it follows naturally that each model will stay around longer.

It merits mention that mirrorless Z is not compatible with the many millions of AI/AIS lenses out there - the Z system can only use AI/S by means of stop down metering. No, the EVFs compensation for the light loss does not equal full aperture metering.

Also, there are advantages to the optical viewfinder and the (D)SLR system which are not nullified or outweighed by mirrorless.

There are sound reasons why the optical viewfinders in (D)SLRs and rangefinder cameras should and will continue - along with mirrorless systems.

[Per Inge Oestmoen]

I can get a used D800 for $840-1000. A used D800e would run  $950-1170. A used D810 would cost $1750-1830. But I don’t want any of those cameras, great as they are. I want a D850. I  only found a couple of used D850s for sale at $2750 and $3000, which is such a small discount from new, I feel I’d be better off buying new and getting the warranty.
Based on the depreciation of the earlier models, I’m inclined to wait and see if the replacement for the D850 causes the price of used D850s to drop precipitously like those of earlier full frames.

If you want a D850, that one is what you should save up for.

It is a brilliant camera, which really represents a pinnacle of DSLR development - demonstrating to us that the DSLR with an optical viewfinder is far from an obsolete "dinosaur." The optical viewfinder and systems built on it is eminently viable and recommendable and will remain so.

[Peter Connan]

It merits mention that mirrorless Z is not compatible with the many millions of AI/AIS lenses out there - the Z system can only use AI/S by means of stop down metering. No, the EVFs compensation for the light loss does not equal full aperture metering.

According to DPreview, the FT-Z adapter has a motor and mechanism to couple with the aperture of the AI-S lenses. If they are correct, your statement is not true.

On the other hand, Nikon only guarantee spares availability for any given product for five years after it has been replaced, which is why I would be wary of buying a D800 now...

[golunvolo]

I thought it was 10 years? Just to confirm

[Bjørn Rørslett]

The policy is 10 years. However, the actual requirement for spare parts can be skewed thus the stock of a specific part is depleted before that time span.

On the other hand, one can sometimes get original parts decades after the product is discontinued.