Les,
When the moment created by horizontal forces of wind (includes wind against camera, legs, sandbag etc.) is higher than the moment created by gravity around that same point - the downwind leg - the rig will overturn.
Yes: the conclusions are the same whether you calculate moments or treat gravity and the wind force as vectors normal to the tripod leg and along the tripod leg, whose sizes relate to the sin and cos of the angle the leg makes with the ground.
The reason I would rather think about it in terms of the leg angle is that I think it makes it easier to understand two aspects of using a tripod in windy conditions.
The first is that once a wind gust starts the tipping, and the angle the leg makes with the ground increases, the tipping will continue despite the gust abating, which is why your expletive deleted tripod (or tent) appears to be stable but then tips over suddenly and without warning.
The second is that splaying the tripod legs increases resistance to being tipped over by the wind, but the relationship between how much you splay the legs and increasing stability is not obvious. My Gitzo tripod legs make an angle of about 70 degrees to the ground in their default position, and sin 70 = 0.94 and cos 70 = 0.34. If high wind is the problem, 70 degrees is
way too steep. But sin 60 = 0.87 and cos 60 = 0.5, sin 45 = 0.7 = cos 45, sin 30 = 0.5 and cos 30 = 0.87, and sin 15 = 0.26 and cos 15 = 0.96. So going from 70 degrees to 60 degrees does not help all that much, and to make a
big difference to stability in high winds you need to get the tripod
much lower to the ground. The other side of that coin is that getting much lower to the ground makes it much harder for the legs to support the weight of the camera plus lens. So if you are going to have to work in high winds, you need a tripod that can get low,
and you need a much stronger tripod than if you could leave the angle of the legs at 70 degrees.
If the sandbag is suspended to form a pendulum its wind loading displaces the mass away from the vertical. The weight is supported by the tension in the string, that has a vertical component and a horizontal component, and their relative sizes are related to the angle between the string and the vertical. The horizontal component, like the wind loading, has two components, one along the tripod leg and one normal to the tripod leg, and
their relative sizes are related to the angle between the tripod leg and the ground. Sin 45 = cos 45 = 0.7, so if the tripod legs form an angle of 45 degrees with the ground and the sandbag is being blown so the string is parallel to the tripod leg (some wind), only 70% x 70% = 049% of the wind-loading on the sandbag is tipping the tripod over. In a more realistic scenario, where the sandbag is only displaced a few degrees, a much smaller proportion of the wind-loading on the sandbag makes a tipping force; eg, if the string is displaced 5 degrees and the tripod leg is at 45 degrees to the ground, the tipping force is 9% x 70% = 6% of the wind loading on the sandbag.