Author Topic: Where is Nikon heading?  (Read 57611 times)

Erik Lund

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Re: Where is Nikon heading?
« Reply #135 on: February 15, 2017, 11:59:43 »
I really have absolutely no issues at all with the D810 in any way except I would love to see it in a D5 body. I use the grip with the D5 battery work around - I come from D1, D1X, D2Xs, D3 and D3X,,,

Likewise the performance of the current 1.4 G AFS are fully acceptable and get the job done, for faster speed the 2.8 AFS primes and Zooms deliver.

Sure some of the old AF-D classics are over due for an update - I'm confident they will be here at some point most of them or replaced by even better offers.

All the wishful thinking and more or less unsolvable technical dreams are funny to read; Nice to have gadgets/functions but mostly not needed or directly unwanted for my work/hobby.

Actually I by far prefer to shoot my Leica M9 - I have the option to select an ISO value, aperture, camera selects WB a shutter time, or I dial it in and I manually focus on the subject and - Click - That's it,,,

I don't need anything else - Simple as that! The whole experience is so relaxed and simple that Photography itself becomes alive,,,

The continues complaining form the 'see me' bloggers is understandable, they suck the life out off having fun with photography due to a constant search for bigger, better, faster, smaller and lighter misconception.

Currently there is camera gear that fits all aspects of photography. The marked is full of options, if Nikon doesn't have it Fuji Leica or some other company for sure does.

If Nikon is not heading in your direction shift platform or add another platform - Most of us here have several platforms due to different tools for different jobs - There will never be one universal do all camera that fits all,,,

Nikon for sure will be able to adapt to the marked situation, just like many other companies in other segments have been forced to due to the more or less predictable technical evolution, I don't believe we will see a 'Kodak-collapse',,,

Choose the right tool for the job shoot some images and enjoy.
Erik Lund

bjornthun

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Re: Where is Nikon heading?
« Reply #136 on: February 15, 2017, 12:20:26 »
"3. Eye Autofocus will revolutionize portrait & wildlife photography and much of action photography"

reminds me of canon elan :o :o :o
No, Eye AF is when the camera focuses on the eye of the subject in portrait photography. This is implemented in the D750 and D810, custom menu b4/b5. Works really well according to reports on fredmiranda.com. This technology is present also in most mirrorless cameras. Nikon uses the colour matrix sensor in combination with the AF sensor to do this. Nice with the new 105/1.4 and the 58/1.4 lenses.

bjornthun

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Re: Where is Nikon heading?
« Reply #137 on: February 15, 2017, 12:24:22 »
I hope they will stand...
Scary graph. I don't think it's caused by the extraordinary loss take, since the lion share of that was announced in November of 2016. I rather believe that Nikon losing market share in a declining market is the culprit, and this tendency has got worse than estimated in November. They need to get on the offensive again.

chambeshi

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Re: Where is Nikon heading?
« Reply #138 on: February 15, 2017, 12:29:15 »
No, Eye AF is when the camera focuses on the eye of the subject in portrait photography. This is implemented in the D750 and D810, custom menu b4/b5. Works really well according to reports on fredmiranda.com. This technology is present also in most mirrorless cameras. Nikon uses the colour matrix sensor in combination with the AF sensor to do this. Nice with the new 105/1.4 and the 58/1.4 lenses.

The D500 and allied line of DSLRs sorely need this for wildlife photography :-)

chambeshi

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Re: Where is Nikon heading?
« Reply #139 on: February 15, 2017, 12:33:43 »
Problem is that this segment of Nikon's products probably can't support itself in isolation. Factories make optical materials in quantity and if this quantity is cut by 95%, for example, it may become prohibitatively expensive to maintain consistency of materials in smaller quantities and thus in the end it may not be possible to make a quality end user product for a competitive price without the support from the consumer products. When Nikon creates new technologies, be it for optics or camera bodies, they need to sell a large quantity of products that utilize that technology in order to be profitable.

Tough Challenges here!!

Furthermore the high end products are difficult to sell without less expensive products in the same lineup that serve as a ladder which allows consumers to spend money in a gradual manner. I know some people who started with D70, then went with D200 or D300, and finally D8x0 or even D5. Today that might be D3x00 -> D7x00 -> D6x0 -> D500/D810 etc. People just can't cough up that kind of money to start with a D810 or D500, when they are unsure of whether they will like photography in the long term and are just starting out. Without entry level products, Nikon won't get as many new users as they used to.

This is vital when the buyer selects hers/his 1st SLR BUT don't remove core innovative features from entry level models. Admittedly, there be tough challenges here to keep the cost of the entry camera down; it is logical to enable full backward compatibility with all lenses since AI, and especially enable AF in entry DSLR for the early AF lenses [excluding F3-AF]. ~10 years ago, I experienced this gap in my D60 and it was more than frustrating. I felt ripped off as a devout Nikon client of 20+ years with an emasculated F-Mount !!!

Comparability with ~60+ years of Nikkors sets Nikon apart from all its competitors, especially for the emerging photographer.... Bizarre that Nikon does market this unique strength as a sine qua none .... inclusive of all the cutting edge innovations

Yet Nikon have succeeded with affordable lenses. 75-150 AIS E / 28-200 G 70-300 G zooms and 50 f1.8D for full frame cameras and 18-55 & 18-200 for DX

Perhaps a viable business model is to lay out the option for affordable upgrades after 1-2 years of ownership. Centred on the attractive trade in..... Nikon then refurbishes said trade-in body for resale With Full Warranty until the model in question has become obsolete. I do just this with the Used market for lenses; camera trade-ins are usually left too long.

In practice Nikon must maintain some kind of stepping stones for beginners in the system. Perhaps the D3x00 and D5x00 can be merged into one product. I quite frankly wish they would do away with the pentamirror viewfinder entirely. Perhaps the D7200 could be added with a tilt/swivel screen.  I think Nikon ought to make a few more intermediate/high end DX lenses and I am sure money can be made in this segment since third party manufacturers seem to have found it worthwhile.  If I'm not mistaken the D7x00 have been extremely popular and thus this is definitely a product to continue making. I don't know if it is inexpensive enough for beginners. Perhaps used market can help with that.

Yes - This is 100 % vital if the more affluent Client buys the D810 / D5 equivalent after some years on from first buy into Nikon. It makes sense for the Nikon business model to prioritize recruiting & embracing emerging photographers who will mortgage whatever they can, as Nikonitis gains its hold on the client....


bjornthun

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Re: Where is Nikon heading?
« Reply #140 on: February 15, 2017, 12:37:37 »
I really have absolutely no issues at all with the D810 in any way except I would love to see it in a D5 body. I use the grip with the D5 battery work around - I come from D1, D1X, D2Xs, D3 and D3X,,,

Likewise the performance of the current 1.4 G AFS are fully acceptable and get the job done, for faster speed the 2.8 AFS primes and Zooms deliver.

Sure some of the old AF-D classics are over due for an update - I'm confident they will be here at some point most of them or replaced by even better offers.

All the wishful thinking and more or less unsolvable technical dreams are funny to read; Nice to have gadgets/functions but mostly not needed or directly unwanted for my work/hobby.

Actually I by far prefer to shoot my Leica M9 - I have the option to select an ISO value, aperture, camera selects WB a shutter time, or I dial it in and I manually focus on the subject and - Click - That's it,,,

I don't need anything else - Simple as that! The whole experience is so relaxed and simple that Photography itself becomes alive,,,

The continues complaining form the 'see me' bloggers is understandable, they suck the life out off having fun with photography due to a constant search for bigger, better, faster, smaller and lighter misconception.

Currently there is camera gear that fits all aspects of photography. The marked is full of options, if Nikon doesn't have it Fuji Leica or some other company for sure does.

If Nikon is not heading in your direction shift platform or add another platform - Most of us here have several platforms due to different tools for different jobs - There will never be one universal do all camera that fits all,,,

Nikon for sure will be able to adapt to the marked situation, just like many other companies in other segments have been forced to due to the more or less predictable technical evolution, I don't believe we will see a 'Kodak-collapse',,,

Choose the right tool for the job shoot some images and enjoy.
Remember Nokia? Great products and still they collapsed in an alarmingly short time span.

Ilkka Nissilä

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Re: Where is Nikon heading?
« Reply #141 on: February 15, 2017, 13:13:48 »
Scary graph. I don't think it's caused by the extraordinary loss take, since the lion share of that was announced in November of 2016. I rather believe that Nikon losing market share in a declining market is the culprit, and this tendency has got worse than estimated in November. They need to get on the offensive again.

Nikon's stock price has been at this low a level previously in November, so whatever increase there was in the meanwhile must have been due to expectations that were higher than they are now. In June 2016 the stock price was considerably lower than it is now. For the past three years Nikon stock has remained fairly steady and its current value is close to this long term average.

bjornthun

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Re: Where is Nikon heading?
« Reply #142 on: February 15, 2017, 13:30:10 »
Nikon's stock price has been at this low a level previously in November, so whatever increase there was in the meanwhile must have been due to expectations that were higher than they are now. In June 2016 the stock price was considerably lower than it is now. For the past three years Nikon stock has remained fairly steady and its current value is close to this long term average.
I know, and Nikon is a tech stock, which means it can fluctuate. Many of these changes are short term, and the latest increase to around 1800 followed by the subsequent drop can be due to speculation as well.

John Koerner

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Re: Where is Nikon heading?
« Reply #143 on: February 15, 2017, 14:22:23 »
Problem is that this segment of Nikon's products probably can't support itself in isolation. Factories make optical materials in quantity and if this quantity is cut by 95%, for example, it may become prohibitatively expensive to maintain consistency of materials in smaller quantities and thus in the end it may not be possible to make a quality end user product for a competitive price without the support from the consumer products. When Nikon creates new technologies, be it for optics or camera bodies, they need to sell a large quantity of products that utilize that technology in order to be profitable.

Furthermore the high end products are difficult to sell without less expensive products in the same lineup that serve as a ladder which allows consumers to spend money in a gradual manner. I know some people who started with D70, then went with D200 or D300, and finally D8x0 or even D5. Today that might be D3x00 -> D7x00 -> D6x0 -> D500/D810 etc. People just can't cough up that kind of money to start with a D810 or D500, when they are unsure of whether they will like photography in the long term and are just starting out. Without entry level products, Nikon won't get as many new users as they used to.

In practice Nikon must maintain some kind of stepping stones for beginners in the system. Perhaps the D3x00 and D5x00 can be merged into one product. I quite frankly wish they would do away with the pentamirror viewfinder entirely. Perhaps the D7200 could be added with a tilt/swivel screen.  I think Nikon ought to make a few more intermediate/high end DX lenses and I am sure money can be made in this segment since third party manufacturers seem to have found it worthwhile.  If I'm not mistaken the D7x00 have been extremely popular and thus this is definitely a product to continue making. I don't know if it is inexpensive enough for beginners. Perhaps used market can help with that.

Trouble is, your recollection of how 'you' (and others) began in the DSLR world presupposes that was the only way IN to the DSLR world. Back then, cell phones weren't smart phones, so DSLRs (even entry ones) could take better photos than cell phones.

Today, phones like the Samsung Galaxy S7 Edge, Google Phone, and iPhone 7 cost more than most entry level DSLRs ($650-$850) ... and they come with badass cameras :o

So what's the point in buying a limited DSLR, when your cell phone costs more and takes some really cool photographs?
(This is exactly why my own brother, and his family, decided against buying a low-end DSLR or P & S for their trip to Europe--they weren't into photography enough to buy a really nice camera, and they didn't want to carry anything "extra"; they concluded that their own cell phones, which they already carry, were sufficient, and which could immediately share with their friends & family, by text or by Facebook post, their ongoing adventures ... which no "entry camera" could do.)

With cell phones being nearly $800, why create BS cameras less than that, which require post-processing and "extra steps" to take in order to share photos?
The D7200 would be the "lowest" camera it makes sense to sell, at $990. It's good enough to justify buying and better than a cell phone, to where is justifies spending extra time post-processing. The D3400 series is a waste of time IMO. Who is going to buy this little plasticky $500 toy ... when they're already carrying an $850 iPhone Plus with a very competent camera?

It only makes sense to offer something better than any smartphone out there, if you're going to inconvenience people by not having the ability to text their photos to friends/family, and not having the ability to immediately share photos on Facebook, which is the reality of all current cameras right now. [If you think the $1900 D500 is "too high" to start people off on for a DSLR ... then the $990 D7200 is the lowest I would go, when people already have $650-$850 cell phones (with great cameras at the-ready), sitting conveniently in their pockets or purses right now.]

As it stands, why would they want to add a $550 toy camera, and a $200 toy lens, to put around their necks, when they already have more expensive cell phones? :-[

The only people who are going to buy cameras in the future are going to be buying something way beyond what their cell phones can do ... and it will be the 1% of the human population truly interested in photography. The rest of the population already has everything they need in a camera, right in their iPhones or Androids.

Jack

Ilkka Nissilä

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Re: Where is Nikon heading?
« Reply #144 on: February 15, 2017, 17:35:33 »
Trouble is, your recollection of how 'you' (and others) began in the DSLR world presupposes that was the only way IN to the DSLR world. Back then, cell phones weren't smart phones, so DSLRs (even entry ones) could take better photos than cell phones.

Entry level DSLRs take comparable image quality and have many of the lens options available as a D500, it's just that the D500 makes it easier to get good action photos and provides more direct controls and a better viewfinder. A cell phone camera is always limited to a moderately short focal length lens (or two fixed lenses in some cases) and there is no timing precision to speak of (the photo is taken when the phone is ready to do so, and the subject may or may not still be there), so in those respects an entry level DSLR provides a lot more than any cell phone as a camera.

I look at young people and they don't have money to jump into a D500 or D810. They start with the cheap stuff and move up. I know many people who need a superwide or tele, and fast primes and low light capability and they can at best buy a second hand D7100 and some third party lenses. But that is a lot better than a cell phone camera for what they are going to do with it.

Quote
Today, phones like the Samsung Galaxy S7 Edge, Google Phone, and iPhone 7 cost more than most entry level DSLRs ($650-$850) ... and they come with badass cameras :o

Well as I've said before all it takes is a slight knock to throw the iPhone 6's camera out of alignment and after that all I got was blur, blur and blur. Most people whom I know don't spend more than 200-300€ on a phone if they have to pay for it themselves; if they get it from their employer, then it can be an iPhone, or if they are somehow infatuated with Apple products. But most people that I know don't use phones with especially good cameras. They're just garden variety Androids that get a lot of beating up as they tumble along the carrier's life. Because the phone gets dropped and beat up all the time, it can't be an expensive model.
I think most of my friends consider that I was crazy to buy an iPhone 6, and perhaps they're right; I just wanted the photographer's ephemeris and some other applications and a fluid user interface with few bugs.
But 600€ is a lot for a phone with 16GB of memory.

Quote
So what's the point in buying a limited DSLR, when your cell phone costs more and takes some really cool photographs?

You can go on a safari with a D3x00, get a 55-300mm and get some shots that you could never get on any cell phone, ever, and get bitten by the bug. Next you're shopping for a 150-600, a used 300/4, and D7200. Although I said young people don't have money, the thing is that once they get bitten they will find a way, but not before they know how much they love photography. And there is no way to find out until they buy something moderately capable and give it a try.

Quote
which could immediately share with their friends & family, by text or by Facebook post, their ongoing adventures ... which no "entry camera" could do.

It is highly inadvisable to talk about your travels in social media in real time while you're still away. You may think all of your social media "friends" are your friends, but there is always a chance that someone empties your home while you're traveling. The police warn about it so it must have happened to some people. I don't see what the purpose of doing it in real time is, in any case. But in my culture showing off is not seen as a positive.

One can always take some time to consider what one is doing and make a more ambitious and interesting travel documentary with a dedicated camera.  It makes traveling more interesting.

Quote
With cell phones being nearly $800, why create BS cameras less than that?

Most people don't buy that expensive phones. And the phone is what they need anyway, it is not a discretionary purchase but a necessity. Furthermore there is no telephoto or superwide angle capability in a smartphone. There is no indoor available light imagery with frozen movement and acceptable noise. There is no precise timing so the human expressions are way off from what the photographer intended. A lot of things simply cannot be captured with a cell phone.

Quote
The D7200 would be the "lowest" camera it makes sense to sell, at $990.

For me it would be the one, but it's still too expensive for many. Think about if you live in India and your salary is $500 in a month (that may be the average salary in a well-to-do city). You probably still want photographs. I photographed a wedding in India a few years ago and there were were several local professional photographers present using basic consumer Nikon DSLRs.

Quote
The D3400 series is a waste of time IMO. Who is going to buy this little plasticky $500 toy ... when they're already carrying an $850 iPhone Plus with a very competent camera?

Apple has 10-20% worldwide market share in smartphones. Competitors make phones that are far less expensive and those are the ones most people outside of the USA buy and use.

Bjørn Rørslett

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Re: Where is Nikon heading?
« Reply #145 on: February 15, 2017, 17:46:37 »
To put things slightly more in perspective, the most robust Nikons I have used are the Nikon F2 Titan and the D40x. I use currently a D3200 for all things UV and a D5300 for my IR shooting, with a D40x as backup.

If the images don't come out as I wanted, the camera is the last thing to complain about.

pluton

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Re: Where is Nikon heading?
« Reply #146 on: February 15, 2017, 20:16:23 »

9. Software. Redesign and fix DSLR operating system so it = iPhone quality; searchable menus should be standard feature.

10. Enable 3rd party Apps to work with Nikon OS. This will embrace and extend adoption of Nikon system


You've made many logical and hard-to-argue-with suggestions here.
However:
In the 4.5 years I owned my two D3's, I used to tell people that the Nikon D3 was the only computer (microprocessor, really) controlled product I have ever had or used that never, ever had any kind of reliability problems.
The D800's that I've had since have each mysteriously locked-up a couple of times each....fortunately not recently.
The prospect of introducing defect ("bug") populated OS software to a camera that I have to use is not a cheerful one.
Keith B., Santa Monica, CA, USA

Ron Scubadiver

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Re: Where is Nikon heading?
« Reply #147 on: February 15, 2017, 20:45:15 »
IMO Nikon is likely to restructure, perhaps separating the semiconductor business from cameras and consumer optics. One, the other, or both will probably be acquired by larger companies.

John Koerner

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Re: Where is Nikon heading?
« Reply #148 on: February 16, 2017, 02:58:50 »
Nikon for sure will be able to adapt to the marked situation, just like many other companies in other segments have been forced to due to the more or less predictable technical evolution, I don't believe we will see a 'Kodak-collapse',,,

This pretty much clears the air of the rest ...

John Koerner

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Re: Where is Nikon heading?
« Reply #149 on: February 16, 2017, 03:19:35 »
Entry level DSLRs take comparable image quality and have many of the lens options available as a D500, it's just that the D500 makes it easier to get good action photos and provides more direct controls and a better viewfinder. A cell phone camera is always limited to a moderately short focal length lens (or two fixed lenses in some cases) and there is no timing precision to speak of (the photo is taken when the phone is ready to do so, and the subject may or may not still be there), so in those respects an entry level DSLR provides a lot more than any cell phone as a camera.

I look at young people and they don't have money to jump into a D500 or D810. They start with the cheap stuff and move up. I know many people who need a superwide or tele, and fast primes and low light capability and they can at best buy a second hand D7100 and some third party lenses. But that is a lot better than a cell phone camera for what they are going to do with it.

Well as I've said before all it takes is a slight knock to throw the iPhone 6's camera out of alignment and after that all I got was blur, blur and blur. Most people whom I know don't spend more than 200-300€ on a phone if they have to pay for it themselves; if they get it from their employer, then it can be an iPhone, or if they are somehow infatuated with Apple products. But most people that I know don't use phones with especially good cameras. They're just garden variety Androids that get a lot of beating up as they tumble along the carrier's life. Because the phone gets dropped and beat up all the time, it can't be an expensive model.
I think most of my friends consider that I was crazy to buy an iPhone 6, and perhaps they're right; I just wanted the photographer's ephemeris and some other applications and a fluid user interface with few bugs.
But 600€ is a lot for a phone with 16GB of memory.

You can go on a safari with a D3x00, get a 55-300mm and get some shots that you could never get on any cell phone, ever, and get bitten by the bug. Next you're shopping for a 150-600, a used 300/4, and D7200. Although I said young people don't have money, the thing is that once they get bitten they will find a way, but not before they know how much they love photography. And there is no way to find out until they buy something moderately capable and give it a try.

It is highly inadvisable to talk about your travels in social media in real time while you're still away. You may think all of your social media "friends" are your friends, but there is always a chance that someone empties your home while you're traveling. The police warn about it so it must have happened to some people. I don't see what the purpose of doing it in real time is, in any case. But in my culture showing off is not seen as a positive.

One can always take some time to consider what one is doing and make a more ambitious and interesting travel documentary with a dedicated camera.  It makes traveling more interesting.

Most people don't buy that expensive phones. And the phone is what they need anyway, it is not a discretionary purchase but a necessity. Furthermore there is no telephoto or superwide angle capability in a smartphone. There is no indoor available light imagery with frozen movement and acceptable noise. There is no precise timing so the human expressions are way off from what the photographer intended. A lot of things simply cannot be captured with a cell phone.

For me it would be the one, but it's still too expensive for many. Think about if you live in India and your salary is $500 in a month (that may be the average salary in a well-to-do city). You probably still want photographs. I photographed a wedding in India a few years ago and there were were several local professional photographers present using basic consumer Nikon DSLRs.

Apple has 10-20% worldwide market share in smartphones. Competitors make phones that are far less expensive and those are the ones most people outside of the USA buy and use.

Nice rebuttal. Except I'd like to see the stats on iPhone + Samsung + Google Phone ownership, combined, as all of them take entry-level+BS lens DSLR-quality photos in ideal conditions. (If not better.)

Moving on, I don't have the energy to offer a counter-rebuttal, line-for-line, except to say a few words:

Most people who can afford a $6500-$20,000+ African safari aren't the types to be struggling to decide between a D3400 and a D7200 ... although, I suppose, maybe one guy spent virtually his last $6500 and only has a few pennies left. Unlikely, but possible. There are so many circumstantial possibilities, it gives a guy a headache to imagine them all ... which brings us to another principle:

  • "A man with one watch knows what time it is; a man with many watches is never sure." :)

By Nikon ceasing to try to make "every camera level," and instead narrowing its focus to only a few very-high mid-level, to the high-end of its arsenal, everyone is guaranteed quality. Thus I remain firm in my view that the "entry level" concept needs to be upgraded significantly from the "gee, my first camera experience" mentality ... to an "I can already take photos any time I want to, and pretty damned good ones, with my cell, so convince me WHY I need to buy a DSLR + lenses" mentality ...

I would also like to add that, if a person gets "hooked" on DSLRs ... he almost immediately regrets buying a cheap camera + lens. I remember when I first bought the Canon 50D, I regretted my decision within 2 months, but already had $1500 into the camera, and a couple-thou in so-so lenses.

It would have been far preferable (and more satisfying) for me to have simply saved up for a few months longer to buy top-tier equipment. The satisfaction simply lasts longer.

Thus, I believe a person receives a better "buying experience" when aiming as high as his personal budget will allow.

Pardon me for another saying,

  • "The bitterness of 'poor quality' remains long after the sweetness of 'low price' is forgotten."

So I respect your view, and agree with it somewhat, but in the end I think it's better just to stick to quality when times get tough ... which they definitely are for the DSLR market.