Hurricane Dorian

[ArthurDent]

I live in Florida and Hurricane Dorian is headed my way. On its current track it is expected to pass roughly 50 miles to the south of my town. That is, of course, subject to change, the predictions are subject to a large amount of uncertainty. Depending on its size and intensity, there could be quite a bit of wind, although it currently looks to be more of a rain and flooding event than a wind event as it is projected to be moving quite slowly (although one does need to consider that for a hurricane landing on the east coast of Florida and passing in a westerly direction to the South of a given location, one must add together the wind speed and the forward velocity of the storm to get a good approximation of the true maximum wind speed). So,  I intend to document its impact photographically (after the fact- I don't intend to go out in the storm unless absolutely necessary) and to post my images here. But, in advance, I thought I'd post a little information so you can get some idea of the magnitude of the storm and its potential impact. I sincerely hope this thread will turn out to be a dud and I will have nothing of interest to post. But we shall see.

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2019-08-29-hurricane-dorian-florida-southeast-forecast-projected-path 

[pluton]

Please try to stay safe and try to get some interesting photography out of the experience.

[PeterN]

Safety first!
I will think of you and all the people who will Have to deal with it

[ArthurDent]

Thank you, Pluton and Peter.  We used to get quite nervous about these storms, but we have been through enough of them that we don’t get too worked up over them anymore. Other than being prepared and taking reasonable precautions there is little one can do, so we stock up on a few essentials, gas up the emergency generator and hunker down until it is over. Thankfully my neighborhood is on the same branch circuit as both hospitals, so our power is always quickly restored. That said, we appreciate prayers if you are so inclined.

[ArthurDent]

Some background on hurricanes striking Florida from the Atlantic side:
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2019-08-28-dorian-reach-florida-coast-no-major-hurricane-landfalls-recorded

We could make a little history with this one.

[ArthurDent]

It is looking more and more that Dorian may stay out to sea as it passes Florida. Each update from the National Hurricane Center has its track further to the east. The latest has it passing to the east of my city, so I am now hopefully optimistic we may well escape unscathed if the trend continues. Time will tell.

[ArthurDent]

Dorian has evolved into a very dangerous storm. Sustained winds are 185 mph (289 kph). It is the strongest hurricane I have seen (potentially)  impact Florida in my lifetime.  My city sits, right now, on the western edge of the “cone” the  area over which it is predicted the eye of the storm might pass. Whether it hits us is dependent on the weakening of a high pressure ridge to our north. As soon as the ridge weakens, Dorian will take a turn to the north. That has not happened as of this writing and is not expected to happen until very early Tuesday morning. Depending upon when it turns, it may hit us, miss our state entirely, and hit or miss Georgia and the Carolinas. If it misses all the southeastern coastal states, it will likely not make landfall anywhere in the country, but at this stage no one can predict what will happen with any degree of certainty.
Because it is a slow moving storm, the forecasters are predicting “feet” of rain. We have had a very wet summer and most of the lakes are full and rivers are at or near flood stage already. A major rain event, which this is likely to be, is going to result in widespread flooding because there is simply no place for the water to go. Several years ago my house was reclassified as lying within the 100 year floodplain. Despite this, we have never experienced any flooding. If it does flood, I have flood insurance which will cover the necessary repairs.
I am not looking forward to the next several days, but by Wednesday the matter will be determined and it will be over, except for coping with the aftermath.

[Akira]

Arthur, all I can say is to hope you stay safe.

[ArthurDent]

Arthur, all I can say is to hope you stay safe.

Thank you Akira, when my children were younger, we simply left the state when a big storm was imminent. Now that my children are grown and one has a job which requires her to stay here through emergencies, we stay as well to provide support and to help with the grandchildren. If I could, I’d still prefer to leave, but that would not be the right thing to do. All that said, we do not take unnecessary risks.

[ArthurDent]

Dorian is stationary over the Bahamas and the poor Bahamanians are getting pummeled as no one has ever been pummeled by a hurricane before. I expect Great Abaco island to be a near total loss. Because the storm has been stationary for so long, it has caused cold water from the depths of the ocean to upwell and this colder water has reduced the intensity of the storm significantly. I expect once it starts moving it will reintensify. All the computer models now predict Dorian will stay well offshore of Florida, so the wind and rain impact is likely to be much less than was expected last week. That is very good news for us, I’m just sorry it came at such great cost to the people of the Bahamas.

[Bill De Jager]

Dorian is stationary over the Bahamas and the poor Bahamanians are getting pummeled as no one has ever been pummeled by a hurricane before. I expect Great Abaco island to be a near total loss. Because the storm has been stationary for so long, it has caused cold water from the depths of the ocean to upwell and this colder water has reduced the intensity of the storm significantly. I expect once it starts moving it will reintensify. All the computer models now predict Dorian will stay well offshore of Florida, so the wind and rain impact is likely to be much less than was expected last week. That is very good news for us, I’m just sorry it came at such great cost to the people of the Bahamas.

Parts of the northern Bahamas had 24+ hours of 220 to 290 kph winds along with close to a meter of rain, prior to winds weakening somewhat.  Incredible.

[Bear Dale]

They have copped a battering that's for sure.

[ArthurDent]

When I got up at 5AM this morning it was raining steadily. By the time I met some friends for breakfast at 6AM, there were just a few scattered drops. It’s now a little after 11AM and the sky is cloudy, but no rain in sight. So, it’s a bust here, I won’t be posting any photographs, and that is a good thing.