I have been following this with interest as I have an EN-EL15 (Li-ion 20) that stopped working after less than 1 year of moderate use. (Of course these use a different type of cell.) As it was out of warranty and there has been no recall on this series it has so far been a complete loss. (I have retained it hoping that some recalls one day would be expanded to the series of this battery; there has been some due to overheating.)
With respect to the 18650 cells, a US supplier I have used for some work related specialty batteries has high discharge rate versions from LG and Samsung at 2500mAh capacity at about $8 each...
Hi Øivind, the 18650 sized cell won't fit into the EN-EL15 sized casing. Firstly they are way too long, by about 15-20mm, but I also suspect diameter of the 18650 cell may also be too large too.
There's barely 1-2mm difference between the ENEL15 case and an 18650 cell, and I can't imagine the thickness of the case is going to be between 0.5-1mm.
I suspect that the EN-EL15 will use two 14500 cells to develop it's 7.0v(7.4v + some loss due to regulation via the electronics).
I've had in it mind to rip my Nikon EN-EL15 apart since about a year after I got my D800E as well. My original battery died after only one month, and subject to recall, but the replacement died after two months!
I got tired of the circular concept of warranty so just bought an aftermarket battery which is still going strong after nearly 5 years(and recently more inactivity, which is bad for batteries).