NikonGear'23

Gear Talk => Other => Topic started by: atpaula on July 03, 2019, 14:12:13

Title: What is going on with Nikon?
Post by: atpaula on July 03, 2019, 14:12:13
1- The two big camera brands used to be Nikon and Canon. Now it is Canon and Sony;

2- The AF-S 500mm f/5.6 PF was released a long time ago. I tried it at Photokina last year, but It is not available at B&H, Adorama, eBay or Amazon. Is it selling so well or what?

3- As I said in another post, the new Noct was supposed to be released in spring. Did not happen;

4- The flagship model used to be updated each 2 years. The D5 is 3.5 years old (which for me is good because I don't receive that subliminary message that my excellent camera is outdated).

????
Title: Re: What is going on with Nikon?
Post by: Hugh_3170 on July 03, 2019, 14:24:52
Well the 2020 Summer Olympics are to be held in Tokyo, Japan from the 24th July to the 9th August 2020.

Also

The 2022 Winter Olympic Games will be the first Winter Olympics ever to be held in China at Beijing.

I would expect Nikon to be pulling their fingers out and making all sorts of interesting announcements in the second half of 2019 and early 2020, especially given that the Summer Olympics will be held in Japan and with the Winter Olympics in Asia coming less than two years later.

No specific information from me - just my 0.02c worth.
Title: Re: What is going on with Nikon?
Post by: Akira on July 03, 2019, 14:33:21
Aguinaldo, all I could say is just to be patient or relaxed.  :)

I don't think Nikon "officially" announced the release schedule of Neo-Noct.  500/5.6 PF is out of stock also in large retailers here in Japan.

Nikon should release a new flagship model at least several to a acouple of month prior to the Tokyo Olympics.  I'm not sure if it would be D5s or D6 or a mirrorless, though.
Title: Re: What is going on with Nikon?
Post by: atpaula on July 03, 2019, 14:47:02
Aguinaldo, all I could say is just to be patient or relaxed.  :)

I don't think Nikon "officially" announced the release schedule of Neo-Noct.  500/5.6 PF is out of stock also in large retailers here in Japan.

Nikon should release a new flagship model at least several to a acouple of month prior to the Tokyo Olympics.  I'm not sure if it would be D5s or D6 or a mirrorless, though.

Akira,
I'm just a bit concerned if Nikon is not a "healthy" company anymore.
This 500mm is no cheap lens and not finding it anywhere means they are not able to make enough units to attend the demand. Why not?
Title: Re: What is going on with Nikon?
Post by: Akira on July 03, 2019, 15:09:27
Akira,
I'm just a bit concerned if Nikon is not a "healthy" company anymore.
This 500mm is no cheap lens and not finding it anywhere means they are not able to make enough units to attend the demand. Why not?

I would guess that Nikon is just putting most of its resources into the development and the production of Z mount lenses for the time being.
Title: Re: What is going on with Nikon?
Post by: Bruno Schroder on July 03, 2019, 17:21:53
This 500mm is no cheap lens and not finding it anywhere means they are not able to make enough units to attend the demand. Why not?
I have read somewhere, but can't remember where, that they have a production issue with the PF element. If I remember well, the glass size is too small for demand and the production lead time is 6 month. The lens being really good, demand is very high.
Title: Re: What is going on with Nikon?
Post by: Bill De Jager on July 03, 2019, 22:32:32
The flagship camera model got a major update every four years and a minor update every two years, until 2018 when we didn't get a D5s.
Title: Re: What is going on with Nikon?
Post by: Kenneth Rich on July 05, 2019, 16:58:48
Maybe a new Df (flagship model) will be released for one of these international sporting events?!
Title: Re: What is going on with Nikon?
Post by: Hugh_3170 on July 05, 2019, 17:32:02
We do need to bear in mind that Nikon has released the Z series bodies and has rolled out an ambtious road map for new Z lenses.  A new system is a really major undertaking.

However I still believe that in late 2019 / early 2020 a new Dx body will be rolled out in good time for the 2020 Olympics in Tokyo
Title: Re: What is going on with Nikon?
Post by: ColinM on July 06, 2019, 22:44:31
Akira,.
This 500mm is no cheap lens and not finding it anywhere means they are not able to make enough units to attend the demand. Why not?

It ought to be good for Nikon that the demand is so high.
But does this cause other dilemmas?
Title: Re: What is going on with Nikon?
Post by: Ilkka Nissilä on July 07, 2019, 01:01:54
1- The two big camera brands used to be Nikon and Canon. Now it is Canon and Sony;

How do you make that out? Sony is at 23% Nikon 21%, if I recall last year's data correctly (hmm. Sony's could be by value, the other in volume, not sure). That doesn't allow one to be characterized as big and the other not.  By contrast, Canon's ILC market share is a little under 50% and they are aiming to reach that next year. Clearly, there are either three big camera ILC manufacturers, or only one big one.

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2- The AF-S 500mm f/5.6 PF was released a long time ago. I tried it at Photokina last year, but It is not available at B&H, Adorama, eBay or Amazon. Is it selling so well or what?

From what I was told by the local NPS representative, it's difficult to make the PF element and a lot of the elements that have been manufactured have to be discarded. Nikon probably didn't anticipate it to be as popular as it is.

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3- As I said in another post, the new Noct was supposed to be released in spring. Did not happen;

Well, Nikon sometimes take a long time to refine the optics of their favorite projects. The price is likely to be very high and sales very small in number, so it's not like many people are depending on this lens for their livelihoods.  :)

Quote
4- The flagship model used to be updated each 2 years. The D5 is 3.5 years old (which for me is good because I don't receive that subliminary message that my excellent camera is outdated).

The D5 appears to have sold relatively poorly, so it didn't get a mid-term minor update, instead, they released a series of significant improvements in firmware (and more is coming). Personally I think the D5 is really excellent for some things but has a few minor issues; first, it is quite loud and I often have to use Qc and even then people pay attention to the sound. Not so much with the D810, for example. I think Nikon should refine the sound in the D6. Second, the ISO 100 results from the D5 are not what one has come to expect from a modern Nikon full-frame camera; the images do not have the kind of leeway for adjustments in the shadows that e.g. D850 images (and D750, and D810, and ...) have at ISO 100. I noticed this recently at a wedding where I used both cameras that the difference is quite striking. However, at high ISO the reverse is true, or the D5 files contain more clean information in the shadows at low ISO that can be used for adjustments. I think there are users who would prefer there to be less compromise at base ISO, even if it doesn't matter to the majority of users of this camera. I would use it more if these issues were addressed. Even though the D850 files are large and that is a bit of an annoyance to me, as it increases editing time of large projects, the extra dynamic range is truly valuable when one has to shoot in sunny conditions or with spotty lighting where the brightness varies from subject to subject within the same scene and this cannot be controlled in the fast pace of an event. I know people use fill flash, and sometimes this is the solution, but I intensely dislike the effect of direct flash fill (it removes the natural tonal gradation of shadow areas and increases the visibility of skin imperfections in those aras), and a larger setup is more time- and labour consuming to contstruct and move about. The D850 base ISO is quite wonderful in this respect.

Obviously, when sales are low, there are ramifications to the development and release of new products. However, I would expect to see the D6 announced quite soon, possibly this year or early next year.
Title: Re: What is going on with Nikon?
Post by: atpaula on July 07, 2019, 02:36:15
How do you make that out? Sony is at 23% Nikon 21%, if I recall last year's data correctly (hmm. Sony's could be by value, the other in volume, not sure). That doesn't allow one to be characterized as big and the other not.  By contrast, Canon's ILC market share is a little under 50% and they are aiming to reach that next year. Clearly, there are either three big camera ILC manufacturers, or only one big one.

I don't make out things. I read it. See https://www.dpreview.com/news/7319905698/sony-bumps-nikon-from-2-spot-as-its-global-still-camera-market-share-increases-4-yoy


Well, Nikon sometimes take a long time to refine the optics of their favorite projects. The price is likely to be very high and sales very small in number, so it's not like many people are depending on this lens for their livelihoods.  :)

This answer does not agregate anything new, but sarcasm.

It looks like you are a lawyer defending Nikon from an offender, treating him with disrespect.


Title: Re: What is going on with Nikon?
Post by: Airy on July 07, 2019, 07:24:49
Maybe a new Df (flagship model) will be released for one of these international sporting events?!

Wow. Apparently, gawd heard my prayers.
(sobering up) you meant Dx, I guess
Title: Re: What is going on with Nikon?
Post by: Peter Connan on July 14, 2019, 13:34:38
If I understand correctly, the global ILC market has shrunk considerably over the last couple of years (and especially in the first half of this year).

That means that there is a lot less money available for development. And when you consider that Nikon's camera division is a much larger percentage of the company than is the case with both the other companies mentioned means that this down-turn in the market affects Nikon worse than the other two.

Despite that, I think the progress made by Nikon over the last 10 years is remarkable. Ten years ago, Canon lead in almost every aspect of camera technology. Now Nikon produces what are almost universally accepted as the best DSLRs in at least two categories (the D850 and the D500 are both better than their direct competitors, and the D5 is probably at least the equal of the 1Dii?). And from what I have read, the Z6 and Z7 are both better in most aspects than Canon's mirrorless offerings. They also seem to be pretty much the equal of the Sony A7mk3, but they don't currently have a competitor the the A9, and that from a first attempt in this market segment.

I believe the only reason they are behind is because they mis-judged how quickly the change to mirrorless would happen.

I firmly believe that Nikon are doing an excellent job given the resources they have available. Certainly there are places where they are missing the boat, but that is true of all their competitors too.
Title: Re: What is going on with Nikon?
Post by: Frank Fremerey on July 15, 2019, 00:27:37
Thank you Ilkka for another very insightful post. For my work I have next to no use for a D5, esp the sound issue is very annoying. D850/D500 as a pair are perfect for me. Depending on the specs a D6 may be just right for me.
Title: Re: What is going on with Nikon?
Post by: Ilkka Nissilä on July 15, 2019, 19:14:31
I don't make out things. I read it. See https://www.dpreview.com/news/7319905698/sony-bumps-nikon-from-2-spot-as-its-global-still-camera-market-share-increases-4-yoy

Nikon's market share is slightly below Sony's in value (revenue) and somewhat ahead of Sony in volume (in number of units). Canon are far ahead of either Nikon or Canon in either revenue or volume.

Nikkei market share data in units (article published in July 2019)
https://www.dpreview.com/news/4339026299/nikkei-reports-the-digital-camera-market-was-down-22-in-2018


    Canon 40.5 %
    Nikon 19.1 %
    Sony 17.7 %
    Fujifilm: 5.1 %
    Olympus: 2.8 %

Thus if you want to classify the companies as big or not big I would either draw the line between Canon and the rest, or include Canon, Sony and Nikon are the big ones. I'm not trying to nit pick here but there is a lot of exaggeration out there about market shifts and I would prefer a more grounded discussion.

In 2010 the global market shares by manufacturer were as follows:

Canon 19%
Sony 17.9%
Nikon 12.6%
Samsung 11.1%
Kodak 7.6%
Panasonic 7.4%
Olympus 6.1%
Fuji 4.9%
...

It is interesting to look at it from a longer perspective.

Quote
This answer does not agregate anything new, but sarcasm.

I was not being sarcastic. Nikon have not announced the new Noct-Nikkor as a product yet and there is no official promise of its release. It is part of a planned series of products called a roadmap. Since this is a showcase / specialty product of interest to, and within the means of only a small number of people, it is understandable that its speedy  launch is not a high priority for Nikon, but the quality of the lens likely is. So if they delay it a bit to make sure it is excellent, seems to me like a prudent thing to do.


Quote
It looks like you are a lawyer defending Nikon from an offender, treating him with disrespect.

I'm not a lawyer. I'm not defending Nikon but I am for accuracy in the reporting of facts and their fair interpretation.


Title: Re: What is going on with Nikon?
Post by: Frank Fremerey on July 15, 2019, 20:29:13
thank you, Ilkka
Title: Re: What is going on with Nikon?
Post by: atpaula on July 15, 2019, 22:46:36
Nikon's market share is slightly below Sony's in value (revenue) and somewhat ahead of Sony in volume (in number of units). Canon are far ahead of either Nikon or Canon in either revenue or volume.

Nikkei market share data in units (article published in July 2019)
https://www.dpreview.com/news/4339026299/nikkei-reports-the-digital-camera-market-was-down-22-in-2018


    Canon 40.5 %
    Nikon 19.1 %
    Sony 17.7 %
    Fujifilm: 5.1 %
    Olympus: 2.8 %

Thus if you want to classify the companies as big or not big I would either draw the line between Canon and the rest, or include Canon, Sony and Nikon are the big ones. I'm not trying to nit pick here but there is a lot of exaggeration out there about market shifts and I would prefer a more grounded discussion.

In 2010 the global market shares by manufacturer were as follows:

Canon 19%
Sony 17.9%
Nikon 12.6%
Samsung 11.1%
Kodak 7.6%
Panasonic 7.4%
Olympus 6.1%
Fuji 4.9%
...

It is interesting to look at it from a longer perspective.

I was not being sarcastic. Nikon have not announced the new Noct-Nikkor as a product yet and there is no official promise of its release. It is part of a planned series of products called a roadmap. Since this is a showcase / specialty product of interest to, and within the means of only a small number of people, it is understandable that its speedy  launch is not a high priority for Nikon, but the quality of the lens likely is. So if they delay it a bit to make sure it is excellent, seems to me like a prudent thing to do.


I'm not a lawyer. I'm not defending Nikon but I am for accuracy in the reporting of facts and their fair interpretation.

I really don’t care at all about those figures of market share in the camera business.
I thought Nikon and Canon were much ahead of the others and was just surprised to read that article about Sony surpassing Nikon somehow.
Your suggestion that I made this news offended me.
I’m educated enough not to fabricate news, and to treat any other person with respect.
Title: Re: What is going on with Nikon?
Post by: Anthony on July 16, 2019, 10:46:34
Those 2010 market share figures look a bit odd.  What is the source?
Title: Re: What is going on with Nikon?
Post by: Ilkka Nissilä on July 16, 2019, 12:59:26
Those 2010 market share figures look a bit odd.  What is the source?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2011-04-15/sony-nikon-narrow-gap-to-canon-with-new-digital-camera-models

https://nikonrumors.com/2011/04/15/2010-worldwide-digital-camera-market-shares-by-vendor.aspx/
Title: Re: What is going on with Nikon?
Post by: Ilkka Nissilä on July 16, 2019, 13:12:30
I am sorry if I offended you, that was not my intention. The DPR article is basically a Sony marketing message repeated by dpreview and it chooses to show only the numbers convenient to Sony and leaves out a lot (for example, Canon's market share).  It is always best to look at multiple sources. The Nikkei ertimates of market share at least include all the relevant brands. I think there is a lot of selective reporting online and often there is a spin to it. Now, I understand that a lot of people here are genuinely concerned about Nikon's fate. Personally I think they are doing OK, not as well as they might have, if some mistakes had not been made, but it's not a disaster, either.

As the Bloomberg stats show, Sony have had the second position in the market before. They seem to have lost it for a while and then regained it, though this time they are stronger in ILC than in the past. This should not be big news really, streets are packed with Sony cameras these days, and many people use their E mount products. In any case I think it's not a healthy state of affairs that there is only two strong manufacturers of cameras, a bit more choice is better for healthy competition. Now we seem to be getting that as there are more different technologies available to the photographer, with medium format also gaining some market (for a time they were outrageously expensive now the smallest MF cameras are comparable to the price of high end 35mm gear).

I think the current situation is probably better for the consumer. I think Nikon can do just fine with about 20% market share even if the total ILC sales decline to 5 million units per year or below. Most of the advances that needed to be made in camera technology to transition from film to digital have been made and I don't think a huge amount of spending on research and development is necessary to continue successfully in the camera market. From what I understand Nikon still spends a large amount of money on R&D and I believe they will remain competitive.
Title: Re: What is going on with Nikon?
Post by: Anthony on July 16, 2019, 13:31:14
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2011-04-15/sony-nikon-narrow-gap-to-canon-with-new-digital-camera-models

https://nikonrumors.com/2011/04/15/2010-worldwide-digital-camera-market-shares-by-vendor.aspx/

Thank you, it seems that the 2010 figures relate to all digital cameras.

The 2010 figures for ILCs are somewhat different:

"In the market for cameras with interchangeable lens, or single lens reflex cameras, Canon controlled 44.5 percent of the market, followed by Nikon with 29.8 percent and Sony with 11.9 percent, according to the data."
Title: Re: What is going on with Nikon?
Post by: Ilkka Nissilä on July 16, 2019, 15:42:56
Thank you, it seems that the 2010 figures relate to all digital cameras.

The 2010 figures for ILCs are somewhat different:

Yes, both the 2018 Nikkei and 2010 Bloomberg data are for total digital camera sales (not including smartphones though.) Minolta had financial difficulty (they had been ordered to pay license fees for AF tech in court), they merged with Konica and later Sony bought their SLR business and I guess it took some years to get a foothold in the ILC market again after a period of difficulty. If I recall correctly, Sony lost some market share initially and then gained when they introduced NEX and the A7 series. I don't know what Minolta's market share was decades ago but they were the first to produce an AF SLR system (with comprehensive lens line) and were very widely used in the film era. Sony were among the first to produce consumer digital cameras and of course were a prominent figure in the video camera business. I guess the E mount cameras show a successful merger of ILC lens technology, compact camera technology and video camera technology - which is something expected given their heritage.

I don't think Nikkei have published ILC market share figures for 2019 yet.
Title: Re: What is going on with Nikon?
Post by: Anthony on July 16, 2019, 18:27:33
I remember the first Minolta AF SLR, because I was an early purchaser.  This is an interesting article about the innovation.  https://www.inc.com/ilan-mochari/minolta-innovation-myths.html
Title: Re: What is going on with Nikon?
Post by: Frank Fremerey on July 16, 2019, 22:23:50
I remember the first Minolta AF SLR, because I was an early purchaser.  This is an interesting article about the innovation.  https://www.inc.com/ilan-mochari/minolta-innovation-myths.html

I used my dad's Dimage7. It was rather slow but a very good camera apart from the glacial speed.