NikonGear'23

Gear Talk => Other => Topic started by: Peter Forsell on June 25, 2020, 23:56:17

Title: Next corpse Nikon?
Post by: Peter Forsell on June 25, 2020, 23:56:17: The ILC market has been in a free fall for quite some time and now COVID is slowing down all manufacturing and commerce. Olympus threw in the towel. Who will be next? Nikon is very vulnerable and very late to the mirrorless market and struggling to promote the new cameras. Extremely bad luck on timing with the transition from F to Z mount. Will Nikon Imaging see 2021?
Title: Re: Next corpse Nikon?
Post by: John Geerts on June 26, 2020, 06:57:04: Quote from: Peter Forsell on June 25, 2020, 23:56:17
The ILC market has been in a free fall for quite some time and now COVID is slowing down all manufacturing and commerce. Olympus threw in the towel. Who will be next? Nikon is very vulnerable
Not true.

Quote
and very late to the mirrorless market and struggling to promote the new cameras. Extremely bad luck on timing with the transition from F to Z mount. Will Nikon Imaging see 2021?
Irrelevant. Your post looks like what the Nikon-bashers always post

Read the financial statement: https://www.nikon.com/about/ir/finance/financial_statements/financialposition/index.htm (https://www.nikon.com/about/ir/finance/financial_statements/financialposition/index.htm)
Title: Re: Next corpse Nikon?
Post by: Netr on June 26, 2020, 07:36:43: Nikon as a company remains profitable. A quote from Thom Hogan:

"Much to the chagrin of the “Nikon will disappear” crowd on the Internet, the company overall booked US$5.4b in sales, and made US$62m in profit. No doubt there’s bad news in Nikon’s results—much like that of most big companies at the moment—but the financials they just reported show a lot of effort and control over their continued retraction that leaves them with reasonably healthy fundamentals. They have US$3.7b cash in hand and an equity ratio of 54%, with lines of credit still open should they need it."

From the May 28th article, http://www.bythom.com/articles-index-archive/2020-article-index/may-2020.html
Title: Re: Next corpse Nikon?
Post by: Peter Forsell on June 26, 2020, 08:43:45: John and Netr, Nikon Imaging made a 17.1 billion yen loss in the latest fiscal year. What I am asking whether the Nikon Corp feels it is reasonable to throw good money after bad to keep the Imaging alive, or would shareholders be more happy if they shut it down? Just like Olympus did. Olympus Medical and Olympus Corp made record profit, but Olympus Imaging is no more after a 10 billion yen loss.

Nikon Imaging had almost 40 % market share out of 20 million unit ILC sales in 2012, now the share is under 20 % of 4 million units. Next year the worldwide ILC sales will still be shrinking still.

How is it bashing to ask a clear question? That accusation is borderline ad hominem.

Canon and Sony are safe, Canon because of it’s mass and volume, Sony because it is market leader in mirrorless. Nikon Imaging is a distant third and bleeding. Leica probably is safe because they sell bling with huge margins and there’s always buyers for bling.
Title: Re: Next corpse Nikon?
Post by: Hugh_3170 on June 26, 2020, 09:25:18: Whilst it is not an absolute guarantee of survivability, Nikon is a very important member of the very powerful Mitsubishi keiretsu.
Title: Re: Next corpse Nikon?
Post by: golunvolo on June 26, 2020, 10:34:21: 62$m profit or 17.1 billion yen loss? I'm reading but it is not easy to follow.
Title: Re: Next corpse Nikon?
Post by: Jan Anne on June 26, 2020, 10:56:50: Hi Paco, the Nikon mothership is in a healthy state but the Imaging department made a loss.

The Nikon Sport Optics division were in the same situation last year which forced them to withdraw from making rifle scopes and such.
Title: Re: Next corpse Nikon?
Post by: golunvolo on June 26, 2020, 11:29:29: Thanks Jan Anne
Title: Re: Next corpse Nikon?
Post by: Jan Anne on June 26, 2020, 11:57:15: I would love to support Nikon financially IF they made the right lenses and gear to invest into.

My last purchases were made in 2018 when I bought the Z6, D500, 200-500VR and a stabilized laser range finder for the other shooting hobby (@bushwackert on Insta for some cool airgun pics).

For the moment I have no desire for most of the Zee lenses and am patiently waiting for a Z 35mm f/1.2 to restore my once so beloved 35, 50 and 85mm trio of f/1.2 lenses. Another lens on the list is a small ultra wide angle in the 12 to 15mm range, for the rest I’ll stick with the Nikkor 50/1.2 Ai-S, Canon FD 85/1.2, Voigtander EF 125/2.5 APO and the briljant 200-500VR.

In the meantime I’ll keep using these with the FE to Z adapter:
Title: Re: Next corpse Nikon?
Post by: chris dees on June 26, 2020, 18:09:00: The 1.8 lenses are perhaps less appealing, but they are all full hits so to speak.
I'm afraid the upcoming 1.2 lenses are waaaay above my budget (€2500 and up?).
Title: Re: Next corpse Nikon?
Post by: Ilkka Nissilä on June 27, 2020, 00:26:22: If you look at Nikon's financial history, you'll find many years where Precision made losses and Imaging paid the bills. It's not very likely that they would end either division.

Many people seem to believe that companies operate in some wild west idea of a pure capitalism where all that matters is money. It is not quite like that. Many people do work because it makes them feel a sense of accomplishment and pride. Not because there is a lot of money in it.

People always predict doom for Nikon, it gets very tiring.

What is also tiring is selective use of data. In 2012 Nikon sold a lot because in 2011 their factories in Sendai and Thailand were destroyed, so they could not sell what they could not make. In 2012 they had a lot of pent-up demand and their factories were up and running again and so they sold a lot, also those cameras they could not supply to customers who would have normally bought in 2011. While also other manufacturers had damage, I believe Nikon were among the worst affected. 40% is certainly not Nikon's typical market share historically.

Olympus, by contrast, made many years of losses from cameras. Nikon imaging has been profitable on most years in the past decade. This year, probably no camera maker is going to do well due to COVID-19 cancelling travel, events, and incomes.
Title: Re: Next corpse Nikon?
Post by: Hugh_3170 on June 27, 2020, 03:18:45: We should not lose sight of the fact that Olympus has very profitable lines of business in endoscopes, microscopes, and a whole range of other medical and industrial equipment. And they were been beset with scandals involving financial mismanagement only a few years ago.

Likewise Konica-Minolta were still profitable in their non-imaging/non-camera lines of business when they off loaded their camera business. So I think that Nikon as an entity will be around for quite a while yet.

The question for any manufacturer that is profitable in an overall sense is how long the profitable lines of business should be allowed to cross subsidise the less profitable business lines.
Title: Re: Next corpse Nikon?
Post by: Ilkka Nissilä on June 27, 2020, 14:29:26: Quote from: Hugh_3170 on June 27, 2020, 03:18:45
We should not lose sight of the fact that Olympus has very profitable lines of business in endoscopes, microscopes, and a whole range of other medical and industrial equipment. And they were been beset with scandals involving financial mismanagement only a few years ago.

Note that Olympus's camera business will be continued under the new owner. Looking at Olympus' financial records, their imaging business made a 0.2% profit in one year out of the past ten years, and in nine out of ten years they made large losses. So there is a very long history of the Olympus Imaging business making large losses before they made this decision. A 3% market share may be too small. 20% is entirely a different matter.

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Likewise Konica-Minolta were still profitable in their non-imaging/non-camera lines of business when they off loaded their camera business. So I think that Nikon as an entity will be around for quite a while yet.

Minolta got into trouble because of their unpaid license fees for the AF technology they used.

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The question for any manufacturer that is profitable in an overall sense is how long the profitable lines of business should be allowed to cross subsidise the less profitable business lines.

Companies' different divisions typically have synergies. For example, the nano-coating came into camera lenses made by Nikon Imaging from stepper lenses made by Precision. For many years Nikon Imaging created large profits. The Sony A9 sensor was made possible in part by development work carried out to make the Playstation, and they make many sensors for smartphones as well, thus their success in the camera business is partly inherited from (or supported by) their other fields of business. I don't think it's conceivable that Nikon could succeed with the rest of its businesses in the long term without the camera business. The camera business is making a loss now because they are spending a lot money to make a mirrorless system and it's not complete enough to become a success yet. The consumer trends (towards smartphone rather than dedicated camera) and now COVID-19 are affecting all camera manufacturers' activities. Now, it may be that since people are at home, the game console business is likely to be booming, but I wouldn't necessarily think that's all that there is in human activities in the future. Medical technology is also doing well, but that could be temporary. Soon there will likely be huge overcapacity of intensive care equipment that is no longer needed. To sustain activity in a rapidly-changing world, companies need to have a diverse portfolio of products.
Title: Re: Next corpse Nikon?
Post by: pluton on June 27, 2020, 20:33:30: Quote from: Ilkka Nissilä on June 27, 2020, 14:29:26
Note that Olympus's camera business will be continued under the new owner.
Maybe not.
Some expect that production will cease immediately.
Apparently, JIP (Japan Industrial Partners) is a venture capital company that buys troubled assets, and then sells off the parts for as much money as they can get. Sometimes they keep the famous brand name so they can apply it to generic consumer products.
Title: Re: Next corpse Nikon?
Post by: Hugh_3170 on June 28, 2020, 04:09:59: Yes, I suspect that that is the issue, along with COVID-19. Given that Nikon is doing OK in its other divisions, it would seem to me (at least) to be far too early to pull the plug on such a major investment in the future of photography to abandon it anytime soon, especially since its early Z bodies are showing much promise and the Z lenses are arguably already best in class.

Quote from: Ilkka Nissilä on June 27, 2020, 14:29:26
Companies' different divisions typically have synergies. For example, the nano-coating came into camera lenses made by Nikon Imaging from stepper lenses made by Precision. For many years Nikon Imaging created large profits. The Sony A9 sensor was made possible in part by development work carried out to make the Playstation, and they make many sensors for smartphones as well, thus their success in the camera business is partly inherited from (or supported by) their other fields of business. I don't think it's conceivable that Nikon could succeed with the rest of its businesses in the long term without the camera business. The camera business is making a loss now because they are spending a lot money to make a mirrorless system and it's not complete enough to become a success yet. The consumer trends (towards smartphone rather than dedicated camera) and now COVID-19 are affecting all camera manufacturers' activities. Now, it may be that since people are at home, the game console business is likely to be booming, but I wouldn't necessarily think that's all that there is in human activities in the future. Medical technology is also doing well, but that could be temporary. Soon there will likely be huge overcapacity of intensive care equipment that is no longer needed. To sustain activity in a rapidly-changing world, companies need to have a diverse portfolio of products.
Title: Re: Next corpse Nikon?
Post by: Steven Paulsen on June 29, 2020, 00:09:39: Nikon's biggest competition is their own ghost.

Sure almost every new lens or camera model is an improvement, the however occurs that people seem to buy on some sort of online info, and in layman's terms that upgrade does not always, duly justify the cost. (You've been had when you try to recoup your losses on a purchase you should not have made,...... an actual mistake.)

Yes, I upgraded, numerous times, Cams and Glass. Of out of several grand that I spent over the years, 30-40%+ were wasted purchases. Other's regretful purchases. I still read the BS, but don't believe any of it, anymore. It's all over Photo forums/Reviews, Guitar forums, Car Forums. "I lie, so you will buy."

There is a Nikon lens rating site (Photography In M,) that is now rewriting old lens reviews, giving anything but truthful advise.
Title: Re: Next corpse Nikon?
Post by: Bern on June 29, 2020, 11:02:10: Quote from: Steven P. on June 29, 2020, 00:09:39

There is a Nikon lens rating site (Photography In M,) that is now rewriting old lens reviews, giving anything but truthful advise.

Can you share the exact site?
Title: Re: Next corpse Nikon?
Post by: Steven Paulsen on July 01, 2020, 01:52:54: I may be mistaken, which website.

I looked up a couple reviews of the older Af-D 18-35 and I read what looked to be a major edit claiming the lens is now good for nothing and the original review was an online mistake.
Title: Re: Next corpse Nikon?
Post by: Viv on July 01, 2020, 10:19:46: Nikon's reported forthcoming demise is greatly exaggerated.

What is probably true is that he D6 is Nikon's last DSLR camera.
Title: Re: Next corpse Nikon?
Post by: mxbianco on July 01, 2020, 10:44:29: Quote from: Bern on June 29, 2020, 11:02:10
Can you share the exact site?

Could very well be Photography in Malaysia, the index page is:

http://www.mir.com.my/rb/photography/photography.htm (http://www.mir.com.my/rb/photography/photography.htm)

and the index page for AF lenses is:
http://www.mir.com.my/rb/photography/companies/nikon/nikkoresources/AFNikkor/index.htm (http://www.mir.com.my/rb/photography/companies/nikon/nikkoresources/AFNikkor/index.htm)

The site has been in a dormant state for quite a few years, I see some pages being updated recently...

Actually, there is no page on mir.com.my site for the 18-35mm lens.

Ciao from Massimo
Title: Re: Next corpse Nikon?
Post by: Hugh_3170 on July 01, 2020, 10:56:45: Are we getting a little off topic?
Title: Re: Next corpse Nikon?
Post by: Erik Lund on July 01, 2020, 10:57:03: The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated :o :o :o

Both for Nikon Imaging and DSLR IMHO
Title: Re: Next corpse Nikon?
Post by: Erik Lund on July 01, 2020, 11:02:50: Quote from: mxbianco on July 01, 2020, 10:44:29
Could very well be Photography in Malaysia, the index page is:

http://www.mir.com.my/rb/photography/photography.htm (http://www.mir.com.my/rb/photography/photography.htm)

I would say that I often go to the Mir site for Nikon lens and camera information, very well written and documented factual information!I would not describe it as a lens review site though!
Title: Re: Next corpse Nikon?
Post by: Erik Lund on July 01, 2020, 11:03:46: Quote from: Hugh_3170 on July 01, 2020, 10:56:45
Are we getting a little off topic?
In this thread I believe it will be very difficult to not get off topic :o ;D
Title: Re: Next corpse Nikon?
Post by: mxbianco on July 01, 2020, 11:04:54: Quote from: Hugh_3170 on July 01, 2020, 10:56:45
Are we getting a little off topic?

the OT ends here, but someone had made a polite question, it seemed polite to answer...

Ciao from Massimo
Title: Re: Next corpse Nikon?
Post by: tommiejeep on July 01, 2020, 16:06:23: Certainly Nikon will be around in 2021 but honestly there are too many things happening in the world that cause me worries that Nikon's survival does not get a look in. Contrary to popular internet 'wisdom' DSLRs are not dead yet and Nikon is still coming up with some winners. A friend just shot//reviewed the D6 for Smart Photography ( Indian Magazine) and is shooting the 120-300 2.8 this month. He is my age so a bit too pricey and heavy but loved the D6.

What happens in the camera world in the future is another question. Sad to see Olympus go but I will keep shooting my Pen F until it dies (or not ;) ) . Might even sell a Sony and pick up a OMD-EM1 mkii for Monsoon shooting. None of my Olympus gear has ever needed any repair work and I always buy spares of eyepieces, battery doors and such.
Keep safe all
Tom
Title: Re: Next corpse Nikon?
Post by: MILLIREHM on July 01, 2020, 22:41:03: Quote from: Viv on July 01, 2020, 10:19:46

What is probably true is that he D6 is Nikon's last DSLR camera.

I am pretty sure that this is not true. Well no one knows how economic crisis and thus how photo industry will develop. I don't expect Nikon to crash nor to crash soon but if so, Nikon D6 would not only be the last DSLR but Nikons last camera at all- and we wont see any further Z-models either.

Excluding these worst case considerations it is likely that the D6 will be the last of its kind (no D7 any more) but we will see further SLR releases, especially the upcomung D850 successor with higher resolution. Olympus had a long death not a sudden one, and with Nikon there will be attempts to keep it going. Nikon F-System is still Nikons main assets and Nikon Z System is not established well enough (will take some years) to replace it at once and have Nikon F skipped now.
Title: Re: Next corpse Nikon?
Post by: Hugh_3170 on July 02, 2020, 00:15:37: Fair point - all is forgiven. ;D ;D ;D

Quote from: mxbianco on July 01, 2020, 11:04:54
the OT ends here, but someone had made a polite question, it seemed polite to answer...

Ciao from Massimo
Title: Re: Next corpse Nikon?
Post by: Steven Paulsen on July 02, 2020, 00:32:04: I'm not complaining. Everything has been a little "Weird."
When I was shooting my old Kodak, the 18-35D lens had the typical distortion, but was fairly sharp. I sold it and bought something else.

I recently bought the same lens for a good price. On my Df, which is still sort of new, I didn't notice near the distortion. (We are talking 14 Vs. 16mp.) This prompted me to look up the internet babble & discovered what I posted above. It may have been from the app "All Photo Lenses," but it is unavailable in the US at the moment.

There is also AI, (not the prong.) that is springing up in leaps and bounds. (I'm sorry if you can't tell when your computer/devise accommodates one's own self.) Win 10 and Apple' iOs are really annoying in that regard. (And don't forget the 10 pages of retailers you have to page through in a silly, online search.

Nikon has a very strong base. The however is, there are also many products bearing the name that really should not. Have you ever encountered an angry coolpix user?
Title: Re: Next corpse Nikon?
Post by: Bern on July 02, 2020, 05:12:48: Quote from: Hugh_3170 on July 01, 2020, 10:56:45
Are we getting a little off topic?

My apologies for starting the swerve off topic.
Title: Re: Next corpse Nikon?
Post by: Hugh_3170 on July 02, 2020, 11:00:45: No need to apologise - all good. I just wasn't sure where things were headed. Cheers. ;D

Quote from: Bern on July 02, 2020, 05:12:48
My apologies for starting the swerve off topic.
Title: Re: Next corpse Nikon?
Post by: Hugh_3170 on July 02, 2020, 13:37:15: Whilst Olympus might be looking to get rid of its camera making operations, it is still forgeing on with its lens development plans:

https://shop.olympus.com.au/news/post/lens-roadmap-update?j=38877&sfmc_sub=6336217&l=321_HTML&u=576786&mid=110005977&jb=16&utm_source=Marketing%20Cloud&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=lens-update
Title: Re: Next corpse Nikon?
Post by: Anthony on July 02, 2020, 13:57:24: Quote from: Hugh_3170 on July 02, 2020, 13:37:15
Whilst Olympus might be looking to get rid of its camera making operations, it is still forgeing on with its lens development plans:

https://shop.olympus.com.au/news/post/lens-roadmap-update?j=38877&sfmc_sub=6336217&l=321_HTML&u=576786&mid=110005977&jb=16&utm_source=Marketing%20Cloud&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=lens-update

It must be sure that the m/43 format will continue. Alternative, the left hand in Olympus does not know what the right hand is doing.
Title: Re: Next corpse Nikon?
Post by: Peter Forsell on July 02, 2020, 16:00:09: Quote from: Anthony on July 02, 2020, 13:57:24
It must be sure that the m/43 format will continue. Alternative, the left hand in Olympus does not know what the right hand is doing.

Which team wrote the message? The doomed on the boat sailing away, or the ones on the shore pushing and waving goodbye?
Title: Re: Next corpse Nikon?
Post by: MILLIREHM on July 02, 2020, 19:05:17: Quote from: Hugh_3170 on July 02, 2020, 13:37:15
Whilst Olympus might be looking to get rid of its camera making operations, it is still forgeing on with its lens development plans:

https://shop.olympus.com.au/news/post/lens-roadmap-update?j=38877&sfmc_sub=6336217&l=321_HTML&u=576786&mid=110005977&jb=16&utm_source=Marketing%20Cloud&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=lens-update

Interesting:
A 800 mm equivalent plus TC1,25 (built-in in this case) and a bird detection algorithm.
Doubtful whether we will see that in operation
Title: Re: Next corpse Nikon?
Post by: Hugh_3170 on July 03, 2020, 04:22:37: The point of posting the new Olympus lens roadmap and details of the new 150-400mm zoom lens in a Nikon thread is to make the point that companies such as Nikon & Olympus are doing well in an overall sense and both have invested a lot of money in new camera and new lens technologies which are too new to make good returns for them in todays changing marketplaces and our uncertain COVID-19 world.

But it makes sense to either hang in there and get a return on these investments in the longer term, OR, to package up their camera operations as viable going concerns if they are planning on selling them.

Corpses they are not at this stage.

An aside: Wolfgang, if I read the bird detection algorithm claim correctly, it will be implemented via a firmware change in the E-M1X body. Yes, I agree - it will be interesting to see if they get it to work. Cheers.

Quote from: MILLIREHM on July 02, 2020, 19:05:17
Interesting:
A 800 mm equivalent plus TC1,25 (built-in in this case) and a bird detection algorithm.
Doubtful whether we will see that in operation
Title: Re: Next corpse Nikon?
Post by: Jan Anne on July 03, 2020, 09:53:06: Well, Swarovski got the bird detection and identification working recently:
https://nl.swarovskioptik.com/birding/dg-c210111

Did not check any reviews but the technology is out there and Swarovski will only be releasing it when it works as designed.
Title: Re: Next corpse Nikon?
Post by: MILLIREHM on July 03, 2020, 23:05:29: Quote from: Jan Anne on July 03, 2020, 09:53:06
Well, Swarovski got the bird detection and identification working recently:
https://nl.swarovskioptik.com/birding/dg-c210111

Did not check any reviews but the technology is out there and Swarovski will only be releasing it when it works as designed.

Maybe i made a confusing statement but I tried to adress the "add Bird Detection capability to the Intelligent Subject Detection Autofocus of the OM-D E-M1X camera" as a feature on the Olympus site linked above. I understand this as an AF-feature allowing to better track birds (in flight) like eye and human face detecion algorithms. Svarovski on the other hand - as far as I understand - helps in identifying bird species one has observed.