Where companies are in the market (per Thom Hogan)

[Anthony]

It is curious that Nikon is not doing better, considering that independent reports rate its products so highly against Canon.

This is something worthy of investigation.

Nikon USA service does seem to receive a lot of complaints.  In the UK my experience (fortunately limited) has been good.  And the Nikon School in London is a great ambassador for the brand.

Although I mainly shoot with Fuji, I still have and use Nikon equipment and I have great respect for Nikon products and the system.

[pluton]

It is curious that Nikon is not doing better, considering that independent reports rate its products so highly against Canon.

Think of all the news/sports/editorial pros around the world that left Nikon behind 20 years ago, and then proceeded to build up expensive collections of lenses of the Canon persuasion .  For print and web publication, the Canon sensors having a few dB less signal to noise ratio means nothing.  Hence, no [economic]reason to switch.

[John Koerner]

Think of all the news/sports/editorial pros around the world that left Nikon behind 20 years ago, and then proceeded to build up expensive collections of lenses of the Canon persuasion .  For print and web publication, the Canon sensors having a few dB less signal to noise ratio means nothing.  Hence, no [economic]reason to switch.

However, Nikon's new 3-D AF tracking, which will result in a MUCH higher likelihood of capturing an epic image, could most definitely be an "economic" reason to switch 

[richardHaw]

well, Canon and Fuji marketing is really hard to beat
they are VERY aggressive.

[Anthony]

Think of all the news/sports/editorial pros around the world that left Nikon behind 20 years ago, and then proceeded to build up expensive collections of lenses of the Canon persuasion .  For print and web publication, the Canon sensors having a few dB less signal to noise ratio means nothing.  Hence, no [economic]reason to switch.

True, but the problem also has a more recent aspect.  The Hogan table shows that in 2013 the Canon/Nikon split was 49.2/42.5, while in 2016 it was 63.3/31.6.  That is a huge, recent drop in market share, despite Nikon having introduced its best ever cameras.  Admittedly, 2013 was a high point, but 2016 is a low point.

[Hugh_3170]

The D600 debacle and the ham fisted manner in which Nikon initially responded to the issue cost the company dearly. 

If it were not for an impending class action in the US, Nikon would have done even less than they did. 

A great shame really, as the amended D600 eventually became a good camera (and especially in  debugged and rebadged form as the D610).  However people have long memories about such bad behaviours.

[stenrasmussen]

Indeed the post D3/D300/D700 period has been a steadily downslope. Granted, the mobile phone market has had a huge impact on the compact camera market and to me it seems like Nikon and Canon tried to counteract that with smaller DSLRs bundled with social media connectivity features. My experience with younger people in my family is that they don't care about this at all. Half hearted attempts (Snap Bridge, NX-2/D, GPS, LV, etc. has left Nikon behind the competition. Likewise, trying to lure customers into the low end (and pro) segment of APS-C is where Thom is absolutely right on the money when commenting on the lack of prime lens initiative.
I do hope Nikon regroup and revert back to a well aimed strategy that takes the company back to where it belongs.

[MILLIREHM]

I had expected the D500 to sell in large numbers because it is soo advanced, and thus having an impact similar to D700.

Maybe a share of the rapid loss 2016 has also to be credited to availability issues? I vaguely remember hearing something about earthquakes and production losses.

[bjornthun]

Social connectivity for amateurs and fast transfer of images to editors for professionals (using Nikon D4/D5 Canon EOS-1DX) won't work for real until the manufacturers pot SIM cards in the cameras. Stuff like the the Nikon WT-6/7 should feature multiple SIM slots. Don't say it can't be done, because this is already standard features for broadcasters using it for live video transfers of "breaking" news. E.g. Norwegian broadcaster NRK does this (multiple SIMs again). Thom Hogan mentions similar uses for broadcasting and pro video in one of his recent articles. The first brand to offer still cameras with SIM card slots will have an instant hit. This is a chance up for grabs! Nikon, Canon, Sony, Fujifilm, Panasonic? Apple, Huawei, Samsung are already there, by default.

Canon introduces USM motors in their AF lenses 30 years ago as well as electromagnetic diphragm. This enabled them to make a standardized fully electronic lens mount 30 years ago. I think this one major reason for Canon's almost perpetual success. What has Nikon done in the same time span? Non-D, D, G, P, E and AF, AF-I, AF-S and now AF-P, all of which creates another hurdle for the customers, in making the Nikon F mount less standardized than the Canon EOS mount. In the long run, I think, this matters more than who's the leader on sensor tech right now. I remember when Canon offered the coveted "full frame" and the others didn't.

[bjornthun]

I had expected the D500 to sell in large numbers because it is soo advanced, and thus having an impact similar to D700.

Maybe a share of the rapid loss 2016 has also to be credited to availability issues? I vaguely remember hearing something about earthquakes and production losses.

The D500 is to expensive for that. Add to that Nikon's lacklustre selection of dedicated DX primes. Fujifilm's APS-C lens lineup makes an investment into an expensive APS-C camera much easier to defend. The new FX primes are bulky and none of them is that wide on a DX camera. Fujifilm is the only manufacturer to offer a proper and well thought out APS-C lens line. Thom Hogan uses the phrase "buzz buzz" for this, since he has mentioned it for years, and yet it remains a riddle for Canon and Nikon. This absense of a wider selection of dedicated DX/APS-C DSLR lenses has been one of the enablers for the mirrorless manufacturers.

[pluton]

There is also mention market saturation and Hogan's 'Last Camera Syndrome'.  Thanks to the big pro D3/D4/D5-type cams, the hi-res D800s, the classic-themed Df, the smaller/budget-oriented D750/D600 cams, and now the "dream APS-C cam" D500, for many non-pro enthusiast users and even for many working pros, there is no pressing need to get 'something better' this year or maybe the next few years.  Everyone has a camera that fulfills their picture-making needs; if not perfectly, then at least very well.

[Hugh_3170]

Very valid points Keith.

In my own case I tend to buy every second camera update, so I will not be looking to a (say) D820, but to  its successor - but maybe the D830 if I am allowed to surmise as to future naming of camera models.  I am far too mean to trade up to a new camera body for just a small incremental gain.  I guess that folks such as myself are not good for business, but the days of new successor cameras being quantum leaps ahead of the models that they replace are rapidly fading.

There is also mention market saturation and Hogan's 'Last Camera Syndrome'.  Thanks to the big pro D3/D4/D5-type cams, the hi-res D800s, the classic-themed Df, the smaller/budget-oriented D750/D600 cams, and now the "dream APS-C cam" D500, for many non-pro enthusiast users and even for many working pros, there is no pressing need to get 'something better' this year or maybe the next few years.  Everyone has a camera that fulfills their picture-making needs; if not perfectly, then at least very well.

[MILLIREHM]

In my own case I tend to buy every second camera update, so I will not be looking to a (say) a D820, but to  its successor - but maybe the D830 if I am allowed to surmise as to future naming of camera models.  I am far too mean to trade up to a new camera body for just a small incremental gain.  I guess that folks such as myself are not good for business, but the days of new successor cameras being quantum leaps ahead of the models that they replace are rapidly fading.

I have got a similar approach. But when I consider that some forum members accumulate several bodies and a lot of lenses in total I dont think that we are not good for business.

[Akira]

...there is no pressing need to get 'something better' this year or maybe the next few years.  Everyone has a camera that fulfills their picture-making needs; if not perfectly, then at least very well.

Well said!  I'm always surprised that even Leica releases new M models at similar paces as other Japanese manufacturers, sometimes even the lenses...

[David H. Hartman]

...there is no pressing need to get 'something better' this year or maybe the next few years.  Everyone has a camera that fulfills their picture-making needs; if not perfectly, then at least very well.

I have no pressing money

I have a D800 and a D300s. If I could I'd add a D5. I'd rather have a true D700 replacement as I don't need the high frame rate. What I really need is time but I can have that. The D800 isn't all that good at high ISO. DoF, low shutter speeds, high ISO fuzzed out detail drive me up the wall.

I need a D700 replacement and I hope Nikon does too.

Dave Hartman